Predictions › Chile › Everton CD vs La Serena

Chilean Primera DivisionSun 11 Oct, 15:30 Chile time

Everton CD vs La Serena prediction

Estadio Sausalito

Everton CDHome

1.70 : 1.22

expected goals

La SerenaAway

48%Everton CD

25%Draw

27%La Serena

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Everton CD vs La Serena is Everton CD to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Everton CD to win
Chance: 48%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Everton CD 1.7, La Serena 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

La Serena to win

26% chancePrice 4.10+7.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Everton CD 48%, the draw 25% and La Serena 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Everton CD the favourite at 1.74.
2
Recent form
Everton CD took 10 points from their last 5 games and La Serena took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Everton CD won 3 of their last 10 games at home. La Serena won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Everton CD score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.0. La Serena score 1.6 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Everton CD games and 12 of La Serena games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Everton CD won 0 and La Serena won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended La Serena 1, Everton CD 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

La Serenarecent form+3%

Everton CD form D L W L WLa Serena form L W W D WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Everton CD vs La Serena: Everton CD are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Everton CD host La Serena in the Chilean Primera Division on Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 at Estadio Sausalito. Our prediction for Everton CD vs La Serena is Everton CD to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Everton CD form

Everton CD have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

La Serena form

La Serena have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Everton CD won 0, La Serena won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished La Serena 1, Everton CD 0.

Our call

We expect Everton CD to score about 1.7 goals and La Serena about 1.2. That points to Everton CD to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is La Serena to win at 4.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Everton CD	La Serena
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	6	8
Losses	5	5
Goals scored	34	32
Goals conceded	20	34
Scored per game	1.7	1.6
Conceded per game	1.0	1.7
Home record	3W 4D 3L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	6W 2D 2L	3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Everton CD to win	45%	2.22	1.74	-21.4%
A Draw	25%	4.06	3.85	-5.1%
La Serena to win	26%	3.82	4.10	+7.2%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.84	1.57	-14.6%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	2.52	2.20	-12.5%
Everton CD -0.5	50%	2.02	1.67	-17.5%
La Serena +0.5	45%	2.24	2.00	-10.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.97
Both teams to score	58%	1.71
Everton CD or Draw	73%	1.37
La Serena or Draw	52%	1.92
Everton CD to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.15
La Serena to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.91
Everton CD clean sheet	29%	3.40
La Serena clean sheet	18%	5.49

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

2-19.5%

1-08.5%

2-07.8%

1-26.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Everton CD vs La Serena?

Our prediction for Everton CD vs La Serena is Everton CD to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Everton CD vs La Serena?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Everton CD to score 1.7 goals and La Serena 1.2.

Will both teams score in Everton CD vs La Serena?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Everton CD last 20 games and 12 of La Serena last 20.

How are Everton CD playing?

How are La Serena playing?

What happened when Everton CD and La Serena last met?

It ended La Serena 1, Everton CD 0. In the last 1 meeting Everton CD won 0 and La Serena won 1.

What is the best bet for Everton CD vs La Serena?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Everton CD against La Serena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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