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Predictions › United Kingdom › Everton vs Newcastle United
Carabao CupThu 29 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Everton vs Newcastle United prediction

Hill Dickinson Stadium

EvertonHome
1.43 : 1.31
expected goals
Newcastle UnitedAway
39%Everton
27%Draw
34%Newcastle
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Everton vs Newcastle United is Everton to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
Everton to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Everton 1.4, Newcastle United 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Everton 39%, the draw 27% and Newcastle United 34%. The bookmakers agree and make Everton the favourite at 5/4.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Everton took 8 points from their last 5 games and Newcastle United took 6 from 5. Everton come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Everton won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Newcastle United won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Everton score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Newcastle United score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Everton games and 12 of Newcastle United games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Everton won 1 and Newcastle United won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Newcastle United 2, Everton 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Evertonrecent form+3%
  • Evertonrest between games-2%
  • Newcastlerest between games-2%
Everton form D D W W DNewcastle form D L W L WHome edge in this league 5% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Everton vs Newcastle United: Everton shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Everton host Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup on Thu 29 Oct, 19:45 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Our prediction for Everton vs Newcastle United is Everton to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Everton form

Everton have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Newcastle United form

Newcastle United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Everton won 1, Newcastle United won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Newcastle United 2, Everton 3.

Our call

We expect Everton to score about 1.4 goals and Newcastle United about 1.3. That points to Everton to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

EvertonNewcastle
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws74
Losses69
Goals scored3128
Goals conceded2636
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game1.31.8
Home record5W 2D 3L4W 3D 3L
Away record2W 5D 3L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored50%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Everton to win40%6/45/4-7.8%
A Draw26%11/411/5-16.8%
Newcastle United to win33%2/17/4-8.5%
Over 2.5 goals49%21/204/5-13.0%
Under 2.5 goals47%11/1010/11-10.3%
Everton -0.542%7/56/5-7.9%
Newcastle United +0.554%5/68/15-16.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%3/10
Over 2.5 goals51%10/11
Over 3.5 goals29%12/5
Both teams to score56%4/5
Everton or Draw66%1/2
Newcastle United or Draw61%4/6
Everton to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Newcastle United to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Everton clean sheet27%11/4
Newcastle United clean sheet24%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
2-18.6%
1-08.5%
1-27.9%
0-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Everton Host Chelsea As Weekend European Soccer Kickoff Arrives

Everton take on Chelsea in the Premier League early match as action gets under way across Europe this Saturday.

17 Oct 2026
Premier League

David Moyes contract talks pause as Everton ownership sale talks begin

Contract talks for Everton manager David Moyes have slowed down following news that the club could be put up for sale.

16 Oct 2026
Premier League

Everton Up For Sale As Friedkin Group Seeks New Buyers

The Friedkin Group is looking to sell a controlling stake in Everton just months after taking over the Premier League club.

9 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Everton vs Newcastle United?

Our prediction for Everton vs Newcastle United is Everton to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Everton vs Newcastle United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Everton to score 1.4 goals and Newcastle United 1.3.

Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Everton last 20 games and 14 of Newcastle United last 20.

How are Everton playing?

Everton have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Newcastle United playing?

Newcastle United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Everton and Newcastle United last met?

It ended Newcastle United 2, Everton 3. In the last 2 meetings Everton won 1 and Newcastle United won 1.

What is the best bet for Everton vs Newcastle United?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Everton against Newcastle. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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