Predictions › Netherlands › Excelsior vs FC Groningen

EredivisieSun 11 Oct, 14:45 Netherlands time

Excelsior vs FC Groningen prediction

Stadion Woudestein

ExcelsiorHome

1.48 : 1.46

expected goals

FC GroningenAway

38%Excelsior

26%Draw

37%FC Groningen

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Groningen is Excelsior to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Excelsior to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.5, FC Groningen 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

12% chanceFair price 8.271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Excelsior 38%, the draw 26% and FC Groningen 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make FC Groningen the favourite at 2.45, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Excelsior took 8 points from their last 5 games and FC Groningen took 5 from 5. Excelsior come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Excelsior won 2 of their last 9 games at home. FC Groningen won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Excelsior score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. FC Groningen score 1.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Excelsior games and 15 of FC Groningen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Excelsior won 1 and FC Groningen won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended FC Groningen 2, Excelsior 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Excelsiorrecent form+1%
FC Groningenrecent form-1%

Excelsior form D L D W WFC Groningen form W D D L LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Excelsior vs FC Groningen: Excelsior shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Excelsior host FC Groningen in the Eredivisie on Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 at Stadion Woudestein. Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Groningen is Excelsior to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Excelsior form

Excelsior have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

FC Groningen form

FC Groningen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Excelsior won 1, FC Groningen won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Groningen 2, Excelsior 3.

Our call

We expect Excelsior to score about 1.5 goals and FC Groningen about 1.5. That points to Excelsior to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.27.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Excelsior	FC Groningen
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	5	4
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	36	35
Goals conceded	28	32
Scored per game	1.8	1.8
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	2W 1D 6L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	5W 4D 2L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Excelsior to win	36%	2.81	2.50	-11.2%
A Draw	25%	3.95	3.60	-8.8%
FC Groningen to win	35%	2.88	2.45	-14.9%
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.73	2.25	-17.6%
Under 3.5 goals	59%	1.70	1.56	-8.7%
Excelsior +0.5	59%	1.69	1.49	-11.9%
FC Groningen -0.5	36%	2.75	2.30	-16.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.77
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.94
Both teams to score	60%	1.66
Excelsior or Draw	63%	1.58
FC Groningen or Draw	62%	1.60
Excelsior to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.06
FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.18
Excelsior clean sheet	23%	4.31
FC Groningen clean sheet	23%	4.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%

2-18.5%

1-28.3%

1-07.1%

0-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Groningen is Excelsior to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Excelsior to score 1.5 goals and FC Groningen 1.5.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Excelsior last 20 games and 15 of FC Groningen last 20.

How are Excelsior playing?

How are FC Groningen playing?

What happened when Excelsior and FC Groningen last met?

It ended FC Groningen 2, Excelsior 3. In the last 2 meetings Excelsior won 1 and FC Groningen won 1.

What is the best bet for Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Excelsior against FC Groningen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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