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Predictions › Netherlands › Excelsior vs FC Twente
EredivisieSun 1 Nov, 13:30 Netherlands time

Excelsior vs FC Twente prediction

Stadion Woudestein

ExcelsiorHome
1.22 : 2.08
expected goals
FC TwenteAway
21%Excelsior
22%Draw
57%FC Twente
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Twente is FC Twente to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
FC Twente to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Excelsior 1.2, FC Twente 2.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Twente to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.371 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Excelsior 21%, the draw 22% and FC Twente 57%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Excelsior took 2 points from their last 5 games and FC Twente took 10 from 5. FC Twente come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Excelsior won 2 of their last 9 games at home. FC Twente won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Excelsior score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.8. FC Twente score 1.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of Excelsior games and 12 of FC Twente games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Excelsior won 0 and FC Twente won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended FC Twente 0, Excelsior 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Excelsiorrecent form-3%
  • FC Twenterecent form+4%
Excelsior form D L D L DFC Twente form D W D W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Excelsior vs FC Twente: FC Twente are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Excelsior host FC Twente in the Eredivisie on Sun 1 Nov, 13:30 at Stadion Woudestein. Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Twente is FC Twente to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Excelsior form

Excelsior have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

FC Twente form

FC Twente have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Excelsior won 0, FC Twente won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished FC Twente 0, Excelsior 0.

Our call

We expect Excelsior to score about 1.2 goals and FC Twente about 2.1. That points to FC Twente to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is FC Twente to win and Over 2.5 at 2.37.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ExcelsiorFC Twente
Games played2020
Wins612
Draws54
Losses94
Goals scored3438
Goals conceded3524
Scored per game1.71.9
Conceded per game1.81.2
Home record2W 1D 6L8W 1D 2L
Away record4W 4D 3L4W 3D 2L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals80%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals64%1.56
Over 3.5 goals42%2.38
Both teams to score62%1.61
Excelsior or Draw43%2.30
FC Twente or Draw79%1.27
Excelsior to win and Over 2.515%6.83
FC Twente to win and Over 2.541%2.41
Excelsior clean sheet13%8.00
FC Twente clean sheet30%3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.9%
1-29.7%
0-28.0%
0-17.1%
1-36.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Excelsior vs FC Twente?

Our prediction for Excelsior vs FC Twente is FC Twente to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Excelsior vs FC Twente?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect Excelsior to score 1.2 goals and FC Twente 2.1.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Twente?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Excelsior last 20 games and 13 of FC Twente last 20.

How are Excelsior playing?

Excelsior have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

How are FC Twente playing?

FC Twente have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Excelsior and FC Twente last met?

It ended FC Twente 0, Excelsior 0. In the last 1 meeting Excelsior won 0 and FC Twente won 0.

What is the best bet for Excelsior vs FC Twente?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Excelsior against FC Twente. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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