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Predictions › Conference League › F.C. København vs Braga
Conference LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

F.C. København vs Braga prediction

Parken Stadium

F.C. KøbenhavnHome
1.59 : 1.25
expected goals
BragaAway
45%København
26%Draw
29%Braga
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for F.C. København vs Braga is F.C. København to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
F.C. København to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
F.C. København 1.6, Braga 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

F.C. København to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives F.C. København 45%, the draw 26% and Braga 29%. The bookmakers agree and make F.C. København the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    F.C. København took 15 points from their last 5 games and Braga took 10 from 5. F.C. København come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    F.C. København won 8 of their last 9 games at home. Braga won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    F.C. København score 2.9 goals a game and let in 0.9. Braga score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 17 of F.C. København games and 12 of Braga games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Københavnrecent form+7%
  • Bragarecent form+3%
København form W W W W WBraga form D W L W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

F.C. København vs Braga: F.C. København shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

F.C. København host Braga in the Conference League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Parken Stadium. Our prediction for F.C. København vs Braga is F.C. København to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

F.C. København form

F.C. København have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Braga form

Braga have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect F.C. København to score about 1.6 goals and Braga about 1.3. That points to F.C. København to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is F.C. København to win and Over 2.5 at 3.53.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

KøbenhavnBraga
Games played2020
Wins169
Draws17
Losses34
Goals scored5831
Goals conceded1923
Scored per game2.91.6
Conceded per game0.91.1
Home record8W 0D 1L5W 4D 1L
Away record8W 1D 2L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets45%35%
Both teams scored50%65%
Over 2.5 goals85%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
F.C. København to win42%2.382.35-1.4%
A Draw26%3.903.20-17.9%
Braga to win29%3.463.00-13.2%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.051.83-10.5%
Under 2.5 goals46%2.191.87-14.6%
F.C. København -0.540%2.532.20-12.9%
Braga +0.555%1.821.54-15.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.85
Over 3.5 goals32%3.14
Both teams to score58%1.74
F.C. København or Draw71%1.41
Braga or Draw55%1.81
F.C. København to win and Over 2.529%3.48
Braga to win and Over 2.518%5.49
F.C. København clean sheet29%3.50
Braga clean sheet20%4.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-19.2%
1-08.6%
2-07.4%
1-27.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win F.C. København vs Braga?

Our prediction for F.C. København vs Braga is F.C. København to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for F.C. København vs Braga?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect F.C. København to score 1.6 goals and Braga 1.3.

Will both teams score in F.C. København vs Braga?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of F.C. København last 20 games and 13 of Braga last 20.

How are F.C. København playing?

F.C. København have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Braga playing?

Braga have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for F.C. København vs Braga?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in København against Braga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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