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Predictions › Japan › Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock
J1 LeagueWed 21 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock prediction

City Light Stadium

Fagiano OkayamaHome
1.51 : 0.92
expected goals
Mito HollyhockAway
50%Okayama
28%Draw
22%Mito Hollyhock
Eagle safe pickFagiano Okayama or Draw
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Fagiano Okayama or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction
Fagiano Okayama to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Fagiano Okayama 1.5, Mito Hollyhock 0.9
Best bet
Fagiano Okayama or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Fagiano Okayama or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.841 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fagiano Okayama 50%, the draw 28% and Mito Hollyhock 22%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fagiano Okayama took 9 points from their last 5 games and Mito Hollyhock took 4 from 5. Fagiano Okayama come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fagiano Okayama won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Mito Hollyhock won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Fagiano Okayama score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.3. Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Fagiano Okayama games and 9 of Mito Hollyhock games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Fagiano Okayama or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Okayamarecent form+3%
  • Mito Hollyhockrecent form-1%
  • Okayamarest between games-5%
  • Mito Hollyhockrest between games-5%
Okayama form D L W W WMito Hollyhock form D L L D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock: Fagiano Okayama are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fagiano Okayama host Mito Hollyhock in the J1 League on Wed 21 Oct, 10:00 at City Light Stadium. Our prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Fagiano Okayama or Draw at 1.31.

Fagiano Okayama form

Fagiano Okayama have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Mito Hollyhock form

Mito Hollyhock have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Fagiano Okayama to score about 1.5 goals and Mito Hollyhock about 0.9. That points to Fagiano Okayama to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Fagiano Okayama or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.5 at 3.84.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

OkayamaMito Hollyhock
Games played2020
Wins93
Draws46
Losses711
Goals scored3022
Goals conceded2635
Scored per game1.51.1
Conceded per game1.31.8
Home record5W 2D 2L2W 3D 6L
Away record4W 2D 5L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets35%5%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.29
Over 3.5 goals23%4.41
Both teams to score48%2.10
Fagiano Okayama or Draw78%1.29
Mito Hollyhock or Draw50%2.01
Fagiano Okayama to win and Over 2.528%3.62
Mito Hollyhock to win and Over 2.511%8.95
Fagiano Okayama clean sheet40%2.51
Mito Hollyhock clean sheet22%4.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%
1-012.6%
2-010.0%
0-09.6%
2-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?

Our prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock is Fagiano Okayama to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Fagiano Okayama or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Fagiano Okayama to score 1.5 goals and Mito Hollyhock 0.9.

Will both teams score in Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Fagiano Okayama last 20 games and 13 of Mito Hollyhock last 20.

How are Fagiano Okayama playing?

Fagiano Okayama have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Mito Hollyhock playing?

Mito Hollyhock have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?

Fagiano Okayama or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Okayama against Mito Hollyhock. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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