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Predictions › United Kingdom › Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
Scottish PremiershipSat 24 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock prediction

Falkirk Stadium

FalkirkHome
1.77 : 1.61
expected goals
KilmarnockAway
42%Falkirk
24%Draw
35%Kilmarnock
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock is Falkirk to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Prediction
Falkirk to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Falkirk 1.8, Kilmarnock 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/5
Both teams to score
67%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1/52 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Falkirk to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 5/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Falkirk 42%, the draw 24% and Kilmarnock 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Falkirk took 5 points from their last 5 games and Kilmarnock took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Falkirk won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Kilmarnock won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Falkirk score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.0. Kilmarnock score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Falkirk games and 12 of Kilmarnock games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Falkirk won 3 and Kilmarnock won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Falkirk 5, Kilmarnock 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Falkirk form D D W D LKilmarnock form D D W L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: Falkirk shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Falkirk host Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 at Falkirk Stadium. Our prediction for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock is Falkirk to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Falkirk form

Falkirk have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Kilmarnock form

Kilmarnock have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Falkirk won 3, Kilmarnock won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Falkirk 5, Kilmarnock 1.

Our call

We expect Falkirk to score about 1.8 goals and Kilmarnock about 1.6. That points to Falkirk to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5. Our bold bet is Falkirk to win and Over 2.5 at 5/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FalkirkKilmarnock
Games played2020
Wins47
Draws44
Losses129
Goals scored2729
Goals conceded4135
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game2.01.8
Home record3W 0D 8L4W 2D 4L
Away record1W 4D 4L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%30%
Both teams scored75%50%
Over 2.5 goals65%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1/6
Over 2.5 goals66%8/15
Over 3.5 goals44%5/4
Both teams to score67%1/2
Falkirk or Draw65%8/15
Kilmarnock or Draw58%8/11
Falkirk to win and Over 2.531%9/4
Kilmarnock to win and Over 2.525%3/1
Falkirk clean sheet20%4/1
Kilmarnock clean sheet17%5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.3%
2-18.6%
1-27.8%
2-26.9%
1-05.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Our prediction for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock is Falkirk to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Falkirk to score 1.8 goals and Kilmarnock 1.6.

Will both teams score in Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Both teams to score has a 67% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Falkirk last 20 games and 10 of Kilmarnock last 20.

How are Falkirk playing?

Falkirk have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Kilmarnock playing?

Kilmarnock have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Falkirk and Kilmarnock last met?

It ended Falkirk 5, Kilmarnock 1. In the last 3 meetings Falkirk won 3 and Kilmarnock won 0.

What is the best bet for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/5, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Falkirk against Kilmarnock. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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