Predictions › United Kingdom › Falkirk vs St Johnstone

Scottish PremiershipSat 21 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Falkirk vs St Johnstone prediction

Falkirk Stadium

FalkirkHome

1.74 : 1.14

expected goals

St JohnstoneAway

51%Falkirk

25%Draw

24%St Johnstone

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/7

Quick answer

Our prediction for Falkirk vs St Johnstone is Falkirk to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Prediction: Falkirk to win
Chance: 51%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Falkirk 1.7, St Johnstone 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/7
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 2/72 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Falkirk to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 85/401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Falkirk 51%, the draw 25% and St Johnstone 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Falkirk the favourite at 5/6.
2
Recent form
Falkirk took 15 points from their last 5 games and St Johnstone took 6 from 5. Falkirk come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Falkirk won 4 of their last 10 games at home. St Johnstone won 1 of their last 6 on the road.
4
Goals
Falkirk score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. St Johnstone score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Falkirk games and 7 of St Johnstone games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Falkirk won 0 and St Johnstone won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended St Johnstone 1, Falkirk 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Falkirkrecent form+7%

Falkirk form W W W W WSt Johnstone form W D D L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Falkirk vs St Johnstone: Falkirk are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Falkirk host St Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 at Falkirk Stadium. Our prediction for Falkirk vs St Johnstone is Falkirk to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

Falkirk form

Falkirk have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

St Johnstone form

St Johnstone have 4 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 13 games, with 17 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Falkirk won 0, St Johnstone won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished St Johnstone 1, Falkirk 1.

Our call

We expect Falkirk to score about 1.7 goals and St Johnstone about 1.1. That points to Falkirk to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7. Our bold bet is Falkirk to win and Over 2.5 at 85/40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Falkirk	St Johnstone
Games played	20	13
Wins	8	4
Draws	3	5
Losses	9	4
Goals scored	31	17
Goals conceded	36	20
Scored per game	1.6	1.3
Conceded per game	1.8	1.5
Home record	4W 0D 6L	3W 3D 1L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	1W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	8%
Both teams scored	65%	69%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	54%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Falkirk to win	47%	11/10	5/6	-12.0%
A Draw	24%	3/1	5/2	-13.3%
St Johnstone to win	24%	10/3	11/4	-10.1%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	Evens	4/6	-15.9%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	5/4	Evens	-13.5%
Falkirk -0.5	47%	11/10	4/5	-16.6%
St Johnstone +0.5	46%	6/5	5/6	-15.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	2/7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	5/6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	85/40
Both teams to score	57%	4/5
Falkirk or Draw	76%	1/3
St Johnstone or Draw	49%	21/20
Falkirk to win and Over 2.5	33%	2/1
St Johnstone to win and Over 2.5	15%	11/2
Falkirk clean sheet	32%	85/40
St Johnstone clean sheet	18%	9/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

2-19.7%

1-09.1%

2-08.5%

1-26.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

Our prediction for Falkirk vs St Johnstone is Falkirk to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/7.

What is the score prediction for Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Falkirk to score 1.7 goals and St Johnstone 1.1.

Will both teams score in Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Falkirk last 20 games and 9 of St Johnstone last 13.

How are Falkirk playing?

How are St Johnstone playing?

What happened when Falkirk and St Johnstone last met?

It ended St Johnstone 1, Falkirk 1. In the last 1 meeting Falkirk won 0 and St Johnstone won 0.

What is the best bet for Falkirk vs St Johnstone?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/7, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Falkirk against St Johnstone. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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