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Predictions › Germany › FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin
BundesligaSat 24 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction

WWK Arena

FC AugsburgHome
1.95 : 1.18
expected goals
1. FC Union BerlinAway
55%Augsburg
23%Draw
22%Union Berlin
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin is FC Augsburg to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
FC Augsburg to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Augsburg 1.9, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Augsburg to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Augsburg 55%, the draw 23% and 1. FC Union Berlin 22%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Augsburg the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Augsburg took 8 points from their last 5 games and 1. FC Union Berlin took 4 from 5. FC Augsburg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Augsburg won 5 of their last 10 games at home. 1. FC Union Berlin won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Augsburg score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. 1. FC Union Berlin score 1.3 and let in 2.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of FC Augsburg games and 14 of 1. FC Union Berlin games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, FC Augsburg won 0 and 1. FC Union Berlin won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended 1. FC Union Berlin 4, FC Augsburg 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Augsburgrecent form+1%
  • Union Berlinrecent form-4%
Augsburg form D L D W WUnion Berlin form D L L L DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin: FC Augsburg are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Augsburg host 1. FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Sat 24 Oct, 13:30 at WWK Arena. Our prediction for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin is FC Augsburg to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

FC Augsburg form

FC Augsburg have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

1. FC Union Berlin form

1. FC Union Berlin have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 45 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Augsburg won 0, 1. FC Union Berlin won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished 1. FC Union Berlin 4, FC Augsburg 0.

Our call

We expect FC Augsburg to score about 1.9 goals and 1. FC Union Berlin about 1.2. That points to FC Augsburg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is FC Augsburg to win and Over 2.5 at 2.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AugsburgUnion Berlin
Games played2020
Wins95
Draws54
Losses611
Goals scored3625
Goals conceded3345
Scored per game1.81.3
Conceded per game1.62.3
Home record5W 4D 1L3W 4D 3L
Away record4W 1D 5L2W 0D 8L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Augsburg to win51%1.951.83-5.9%
A Draw22%4.583.70-19.2%
1. FC Union Berlin to win21%4.753.40-28.5%
Over 3.5 goals39%2.532.30-9.2%
Under 3.5 goals56%1.781.54-13.3%
FC Augsburg -0.549%2.031.80-11.5%
1. FC Union Berlin +0.547%2.141.83-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.65
Over 3.5 goals38%2.61
Both teams to score60%1.66
FC Augsburg or Draw78%1.29
1. FC Union Berlin or Draw45%2.20
FC Augsburg to win and Over 2.538%2.60
1. FC Union Berlin to win and Over 2.515%6.83
FC Augsburg clean sheet31%3.26
1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet14%7.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
2-19.8%
2-08.3%
1-07.9%
3-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Our prediction for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin is FC Augsburg to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect FC Augsburg to score 1.9 goals and 1. FC Union Berlin 1.2.

Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of FC Augsburg last 20 games and 12 of 1. FC Union Berlin last 20.

How are FC Augsburg playing?

FC Augsburg have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are 1. FC Union Berlin playing?

1. FC Union Berlin have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 45 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when FC Augsburg and 1. FC Union Berlin last met?

It ended 1. FC Union Berlin 4, FC Augsburg 0. In the last 2 meetings FC Augsburg won 0 and 1. FC Union Berlin won 1.

What is the best bet for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Augsburg against Union Berlin. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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