Predictions › Peru › FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético

Peruvian Liga 1Sat 7 Nov, 20:30 Peru time

FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético prediction

Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

FC CajamarcaHome

1.47 : 2.25

expected goals

Alianza AtléticoAway

24%Cajamarca

21%Draw

55%Alianza Atl

Eagle safe pickAlianza Atlético or Draw

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction: Alianza Atlético to win
Chance: 55%
Most likely score: 1-2
Expected goals: FC Cajamarca 1.5, Alianza Atlético 2.3
Best bet: Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score: 69%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Alianza Atlético or Draw

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5

43% chanceFair price 2.351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Cajamarca 24%, the draw 21% and Alianza Atlético 55%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
FC Cajamarca took 1 point from their last 5 games and Alianza Atlético took 9 from 5. Alianza Atlético come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Cajamarca won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Alianza Atlético won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Cajamarca score 1.6 goals a game and let in 2.0. Alianza Atlético score 1.9 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of FC Cajamarca games and 16 of Alianza Atlético games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, FC Cajamarca won 0 and Alianza Atlético won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Alianza Atlético 1, FC Cajamarca 1.
6
The safest bet
Alianza Atlético or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Cajamarcarecent form-4%
Cajamarcarest between games-5%
Alianza Atlrest between games-5%

Cajamarca form D L L D LAlianza Atl form D L L W WHome edge in this league 45% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético: Alianza Atlético are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Cajamarca host Alianza Atlético in the Peruvian Liga 1 on Sat 7 Nov, 20:30 at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón. Our prediction for FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.31.

FC Cajamarca form

FC Cajamarca have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Alianza Atlético form

Alianza Atlético have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 36 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. FC Cajamarca won 0, Alianza Atlético won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza Atlético 1, FC Cajamarca 1.

Our call

We expect FC Cajamarca to score about 1.5 goals and Alianza Atlético about 2.3. That points to Alianza Atlético to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5 at 2.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cajamarca	Alianza Atl
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	11
Draws	4	2
Losses	10	7
Goals scored	32	39
Goals conceded	40	36
Scored per game	1.6	1.9
Conceded per game	2.0	1.8
Home record	2W 2D 7L	7W 1D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 3L	4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	5%	10%
Both teams scored	85%	90%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.12
Over 2.5 goals	72%	1.39
Over 3.5 goals	51%	1.96
Both teams to score	69%	1.44
FC Cajamarca or Draw	45%	2.21
Alianza Atlético or Draw	76%	1.32
FC Cajamarca to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.39
Alianza Atlético to win and Over 2.5	44%	2.29
FC Cajamarca clean sheet	11%	9.48
Alianza Atlético clean sheet	23%	4.35

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.0%

1-18.5%

1-36.8%

2-26.6%

0-26.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético?

Our prediction for FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético is Alianza Atlético to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-3. We expect FC Cajamarca to score 1.5 goals and Alianza Atlético 2.3.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético?

Both teams to score has a 69% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of FC Cajamarca last 20 games and 18 of Alianza Atlético last 20.

How are FC Cajamarca playing?

How are Alianza Atlético playing?

What happened when FC Cajamarca and Alianza Atlético last met?

It ended Alianza Atlético 1, FC Cajamarca 1. In the last 1 meeting FC Cajamarca won 0 and Alianza Atlético won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético?

Alianza Atlético or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cajamarca against Alianza Atl. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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