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Predictions › United States › FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
MLSSun 18 Oct, 17:00 United States time

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew prediction

TQL Stadium

FC CincinnatiHome
2.46 : 1.92
expected goals
Columbus CrewAway
50%Cincinnati
20%Draw
30%Columbus
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
-369

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew is FC Cincinnati to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -369.

Prediction
FC Cincinnati to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
FC Cincinnati 2.5, Columbus Crew 1.9
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at -369
Both teams to score
78%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
79% chanceFair price -3692 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Cincinnati to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price +1471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Cincinnati 50%, the draw 20% and Columbus Crew 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Cincinnati took 2 points from their last 5 games and Columbus Crew took 9 from 5. Columbus Crew come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Cincinnati won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Columbus Crew won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Cincinnati score 2.3 goals a game and let in 2.5. Columbus Crew score 1.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of FC Cincinnati games and 15 of Columbus Crew games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, FC Cincinnati won 2 and Columbus Crew won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Columbus Crew 2, FC Cincinnati 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cincinnatirecent form-4%
  • Columbusrecent form+1%
Cincinnati form L D D L LColumbus form W W W L LHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew: FC Cincinnati are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Cincinnati host Columbus Crew in the MLS on Sun 18 Oct, 17:00 at TQL Stadium. Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew is FC Cincinnati to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -369.

FC Cincinnati form

FC Cincinnati have 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 49 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Columbus Crew form

Columbus Crew have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. FC Cincinnati won 2, Columbus Crew won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Columbus Crew 2, FC Cincinnati 1.

Our call

We expect FC Cincinnati to score about 2.5 goals and Columbus Crew about 1.9. That points to FC Cincinnati to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at -369. Our bold bet is FC Cincinnati to win and Over 2.5 at +147.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CincinnatiColumbus
Games played2020
Wins67
Draws92
Losses511
Goals scored4630
Goals conceded4933
Scored per game2.31.5
Conceded per game2.51.6
Home record5W 3D 1L6W 0D 5L
Away record1W 6D 4L1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets5%20%
Both teams scored85%70%
Over 2.5 goals80%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals94%-1464
Over 2.5 goals81%-433
Over 3.5 goals64%-175
Both teams to score78%-363
FC Cincinnati or Draw70%-231
Columbus Crew or Draw50%-100
FC Cincinnati to win and Over 2.543%+130
Columbus Crew to win and Over 2.526%+287
FC Cincinnati clean sheet15%+582
Columbus Crew clean sheet9%+1068

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-17.3%
2-27.0%
1-16.3%
3-16.0%
3-25.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew is FC Cincinnati to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -369.

What is the score prediction for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-2 and 1-1. We expect FC Cincinnati to score 2.5 goals and Columbus Crew 1.9.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

Both teams to score has a 78% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of FC Cincinnati last 20 games and 14 of Columbus Crew last 20.

How are FC Cincinnati playing?

FC Cincinnati have 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 49 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Columbus Crew playing?

Columbus Crew have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew last met?

It ended Columbus Crew 2, FC Cincinnati 1. In the last 4 meetings FC Cincinnati won 2 and Columbus Crew won 2.

What is the best bet for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

Over 2.5 goals at -369, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cincinnati against Columbus. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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