Predictions › United States › FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution

MLSWed 14 Oct, 19:30 United States time

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution prediction

TQL Stadium

FC CincinnatiHome

2.09 : 1.83

expected goals

New England RevolutionAway

44%Cincinnati

22%Draw

34%New England

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

-309

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution is FC Cincinnati to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -309.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: FC Cincinnati 2.1, New England Revolution 1.8
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at -309
Both teams to score: 74%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

76% chanceFair price -3092 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Cincinnati to win and Over 2.5

35% chanceFair price +1891 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Cincinnati 44%, the draw 22% and New England Revolution 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
FC Cincinnati took 2 points from their last 5 games and New England Revolution took 9 from 5. New England Revolution come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Cincinnati won 5 of their last 9 games at home. New England Revolution won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Cincinnati score 2.3 goals a game and let in 2.5. New England Revolution score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of FC Cincinnati games and 14 of New England Revolution games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, FC Cincinnati won 0 and New England Revolution won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended New England Revolution 6, FC Cincinnati 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Cincinnatirecent form-4%
New Englandrecent form+1%

Cincinnati form L D D L LNew England form L W W W LHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution: FC Cincinnati shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Cincinnati host New England Revolution in the MLS on Wed 14 Oct, 19:30 at TQL Stadium. Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution is FC Cincinnati to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -309.

FC Cincinnati form

FC Cincinnati have 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 49 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, L, newest first.

New England Revolution form

New England Revolution have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. FC Cincinnati won 0, New England Revolution won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished New England Revolution 6, FC Cincinnati 1.

Our call

We expect FC Cincinnati to score about 2.1 goals and New England Revolution about 1.8. That points to FC Cincinnati to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at -309. Our bold bet is FC Cincinnati to win and Over 2.5 at +189.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cincinnati	New England
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	10
Draws	9	4
Losses	5	6
Goals scored	46	31
Goals conceded	49	26
Scored per game	2.3	1.6
Conceded per game	2.5	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 1L	5W 2D 2L
Away record	1W 6D 4L	5W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	5%	15%
Both teams scored	85%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	91%	-974
Over 2.5 goals	75%	-300
Over 3.5 goals	55%	-122
Both teams to score	74%	-285
FC Cincinnati or Draw	66%	-193
New England Revolution or Draw	56%	-126
FC Cincinnati to win and Over 2.5	36%	+177
New England Revolution to win and Over 2.5	28%	+262
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	16%	+523
New England Revolution clean sheet	12%	+708

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-18.0%

2-17.9%

2-27.3%

1-26.9%

3-15.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

Our prediction for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution is FC Cincinnati to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at -309.

What is the score prediction for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-2. We expect FC Cincinnati to score 2.1 goals and New England Revolution 1.8.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

Both teams to score has a 74% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of FC Cincinnati last 20 games and 13 of New England Revolution last 20.

How are FC Cincinnati playing?

How are New England Revolution playing?

What happened when FC Cincinnati and New England Revolution last met?

It ended New England Revolution 6, FC Cincinnati 1. In the last 1 meeting FC Cincinnati won 0 and New England Revolution won 1.

What is the best bet for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?

Over 2.5 goals at -309, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cincinnati against New England. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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