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Predictions › Germany › FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
BundesligaSun 11 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction

RheinEnergieStadion

FC CologneHome
1.91 : 1.30
expected goals
Borussia MönchengladbachAway
51%Cologne
23%Draw
25%Gladbach
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is FC Cologne to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
FC Cologne to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Cologne 1.9, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Cologne to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Cologne 51%, the draw 23% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 25%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Cologne the favourite at 1.91.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Cologne took 4 points from their last 5 games and Borussia Mönchengladbach took 3 from 5. FC Cologne come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Cologne won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Cologne score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.1. Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.3 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of FC Cologne games and 12 of Borussia Mönchengladbach games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, FC Cologne won 0 and Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended FC Cologne 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Gladbachrecent form-4%
Cologne form L D L W WGladbach form L L L L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: FC Cologne are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Cologne host Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga on Sun 11 Oct, 13:30 at RheinEnergieStadion. Our prediction for FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is FC Cologne to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

FC Cologne form

FC Cologne have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Borussia Mönchengladbach form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Cologne won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished FC Cologne 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.

Our call

We expect FC Cologne to score about 1.9 goals and Borussia Mönchengladbach about 1.3. That points to FC Cologne to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is FC Cologne to win and Over 2.5 at 2.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CologneGladbach
Games played2020
Wins34
Draws76
Losses1010
Goals scored2825
Goals conceded4240
Scored per game1.41.3
Conceded per game2.12.0
Home record3W 3D 4L4W 3D 3L
Away record0W 4D 6L0W 3D 7L
Clean sheets5%25%
Both teams scored90%50%
Over 2.5 goals75%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Cologne to win48%2.081.91-8.1%
A Draw23%4.343.75-13.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win25%4.033.20-20.7%
Over 3.5 goals40%2.532.15-15.0%
Under 3.5 goals55%1.831.63-11.3%
FC Cologne -0.546%2.151.87-13.1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.548%2.101.77-15.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.61
Over 3.5 goals40%2.51
Both teams to score63%1.60
FC Cologne or Draw75%1.34
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw49%2.05
FC Cologne to win and Over 2.537%2.73
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.517%5.78
FC Cologne clean sheet27%3.66
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet15%6.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
2-19.6%
2-07.4%
1-07.1%
1-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our prediction for FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is FC Cologne to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect FC Cologne to score 1.9 goals and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.3.

Will both teams score in FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 18 of FC Cologne last 20 games and 10 of Borussia Mönchengladbach last 20.

How are FC Cologne playing?

FC Cologne have 3 wins, 7 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Borussia Mönchengladbach playing?

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 40 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when FC Cologne and Borussia Mönchengladbach last met?

It ended FC Cologne 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach 3. In the last 2 meetings FC Cologne won 0 and Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1.

What is the best bet for FC Cologne vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cologne against Gladbach. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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