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Predictions › Germany › FC Cologne vs Schalke 04
BundesligaSat 24 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

FC Cologne vs Schalke 04 prediction

RheinEnergieStadion

FC CologneHome
1.77 : 1.39
expected goals
Schalke 04Away
46%Cologne
24%Draw
30%Schalke
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Cologne vs Schalke 04 is FC Cologne to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
FC Cologne to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Cologne 1.8, Schalke 04 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Cologne to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Cologne 46%, the draw 24% and Schalke 04 30%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Cologne the favourite at 1.95.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Cologne took 7 points from their last 5 games and Schalke 04 took 5 from 5. FC Cologne come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Cologne won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Schalke 04 won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Cologne score 1.4 goals a game and let in 2.0. Schalke 04 score 1.5 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of FC Cologne games and 11 of Schalke 04 games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Colognerecent form-1%
Cologne form D L D L WSchalke form D D W D LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Cologne vs Schalke 04: FC Cologne are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Cologne host Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on Sat 24 Oct, 13:30 at RheinEnergieStadion. Our prediction for FC Cologne vs Schalke 04 is FC Cologne to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

FC Cologne form

FC Cologne have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Schalke 04 form

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Cologne to score about 1.8 goals and Schalke 04 about 1.4. That points to FC Cologne to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is FC Cologne to win and Over 2.5 at 3.27.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CologneSchalke
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws76
Losses94
Goals scored2930
Goals conceded4125
Scored per game1.41.5
Conceded per game2.01.3
Home record4W 3D 4L6W 4D 0L
Away record0W 4D 5L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets5%30%
Both teams scored90%55%
Over 2.5 goals75%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Cologne to win45%2.221.95-12.3%
A Draw23%4.363.70-15.2%
Schalke 04 to win28%3.643.05-16.1%
Over 2.5 goals57%1.761.53-13.2%
Under 2.5 goals39%2.562.35-8.3%
FC Cologne -0.546%2.191.91-12.9%
Schalke 04 +0.550%1.991.71-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals61%1.63
Over 3.5 goals39%2.57
Both teams to score63%1.59
FC Cologne or Draw70%1.42
Schalke 04 or Draw54%1.85
FC Cologne to win and Over 2.532%3.08
Schalke 04 to win and Over 2.520%4.93
FC Cologne clean sheet25%4.02
Schalke 04 clean sheet17%5.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%
2-19.2%
1-27.2%
1-06.9%
2-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?

Our prediction for FC Cologne vs Schalke 04 is FC Cologne to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect FC Cologne to score 1.8 goals and Schalke 04 1.4.

Will both teams score in FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 18 of FC Cologne last 20 games and 11 of Schalke 04 last 20.

How are FC Cologne playing?

FC Cologne have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Schalke 04 playing?

Schalke 04 have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Cologne vs Schalke 04?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cologne against Schalke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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