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Predictions › United States › FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew
MLSWed 28 Oct, 20:30 United States time

FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew prediction

Toyota Stadium

FC DallasHome
1.75 : 1.31
expected goals
Columbus CrewAway
47%Dallas
25%Draw
28%Columbus
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
-429

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew is FC Dallas to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -429.

Prediction
FC Dallas to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Dallas 1.8, Columbus Crew 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at -429
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price -4292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Dallas to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price +2171 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Dallas 47%, the draw 25% and Columbus Crew 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Dallas took 8 points from their last 5 games and Columbus Crew took 12 from 5. Columbus Crew come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Dallas won 5 of their last 7 games at home. Columbus Crew won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Dallas score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Columbus Crew score 1.6 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of FC Dallas games and 15 of Columbus Crew games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dallasrecent form+1%
  • Columbusrecent form+3%
  • Dallasrest between games-5%
  • Columbusrest between games-5%
Dallas form D W L W DColumbus form D W L W WHome edge in this league 26% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew: FC Dallas are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Dallas host Columbus Crew in the MLS on Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 at Toyota Stadium. Our prediction for FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew is FC Dallas to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -429.

FC Dallas form

FC Dallas have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Columbus Crew form

Columbus Crew have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Dallas to score about 1.8 goals and Columbus Crew about 1.3. That points to FC Dallas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -429. Our bold bet is FC Dallas to win and Over 2.5 at +217.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DallasColumbus
Games played2020
Wins117
Draws52
Losses411
Goals scored3732
Goals conceded3234
Scored per game1.91.6
Conceded per game1.61.7
Home record5W 1D 1L5W 0D 5L
Away record6W 4D 3L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored65%70%
Over 2.5 goals70%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%-443
Over 2.5 goals59%-144
Over 3.5 goals37%+173
Both teams to score61%-156
FC Dallas or Draw72%-255
Columbus Crew or Draw53%-112
FC Dallas to win and Over 2.532%+209
Columbus Crew to win and Over 2.519%+437
FC Dallas clean sheet27%+271
Columbus Crew clean sheet17%+474

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.4%
1-07.6%
2-07.2%
1-27.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?

Our prediction for FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew is FC Dallas to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -429.

What is the score prediction for FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect FC Dallas to score 1.8 goals and Columbus Crew 1.3.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of FC Dallas last 20 games and 14 of Columbus Crew last 20.

How are FC Dallas playing?

FC Dallas have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

How are Columbus Crew playing?

Columbus Crew have 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?

Over 1.5 goals at -429, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dallas against Columbus. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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