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Predictions › United States › FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
MLSSat 24 Oct, 20:30 United States time

FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction

Toyota Stadium

FC DallasHome
1.36 : 1.31
expected goals
San Jose EarthquakesAway
37%Dallas
27%Draw
35%San Jose
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
-303

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes is FC Dallas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -303.

Prediction
FC Dallas to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Dallas 1.4, San Jose Earthquakes 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at -303
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price -3032 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price +6651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Dallas 37%, the draw 27% and San Jose Earthquakes 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Dallas took 10 points from their last 5 games and San Jose Earthquakes took 9 from 5. FC Dallas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Dallas won 5 of their last 7 games at home. San Jose Earthquakes won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Dallas score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. San Jose Earthquakes score 1.4 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of FC Dallas games and 11 of San Jose Earthquakes games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, FC Dallas won 1 and San Jose Earthquakes won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended San Jose Earthquakes 2, FC Dallas 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dallasrecent form+1%
  • San Joserecent form+3%
  • Dallasrest between games-5%
  • San Joserest between games-5%
Dallas form D L W D WSan Jose form D D W D WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes: FC Dallas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Dallas host San Jose Earthquakes in the MLS on Sat 24 Oct, 20:30 at Toyota Stadium. Our prediction for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes is FC Dallas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -303.

FC Dallas form

FC Dallas have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

San Jose Earthquakes form

San Jose Earthquakes have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. FC Dallas won 1, San Jose Earthquakes won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished San Jose Earthquakes 2, FC Dallas 3.

Our call

We expect FC Dallas to score about 1.4 goals and San Jose Earthquakes about 1.3. That points to FC Dallas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -303. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +665.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DallasSan Jose
Games played2020
Wins115
Draws48
Losses57
Goals scored3629
Goals conceded3237
Scored per game1.81.4
Conceded per game1.61.9
Home record5W 1D 1L2W 3D 4L
Away record6W 3D 4L3W 5D 3L
Clean sheets25%10%
Both teams scored65%80%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%-306
Over 2.5 goals50%+100
Over 3.5 goals28%+258
Both teams to score55%-122
FC Dallas or Draw65%-183
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw63%-169
FC Dallas to win and Over 2.522%+350
San Jose Earthquakes to win and Over 2.521%+377
FC Dallas clean sheet27%+272
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet26%+288

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
1-08.6%
2-18.4%
0-18.4%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Our prediction for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes is FC Dallas to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -303.

What is the score prediction for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect FC Dallas to score 1.4 goals and San Jose Earthquakes 1.3.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of FC Dallas last 20 games and 16 of San Jose Earthquakes last 20.

How are FC Dallas playing?

FC Dallas have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are San Jose Earthquakes playing?

San Jose Earthquakes have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes last met?

It ended San Jose Earthquakes 2, FC Dallas 3. In the last 1 meeting FC Dallas won 1 and San Jose Earthquakes won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Over 1.5 goals at -303, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dallas against San Jose. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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