Predictions › Portugal › FC Famalicao vs Alverca

Primeira LigaMon 12 Oct, 19:15 Portugal time

FC Famalicao vs Alverca prediction

Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

FC FamalicaoHome

1.57 : 0.91

expected goals

AlvercaAway

52%FC Famalicao

27%Draw

21%Alverca

Eagle safe pickFC Famalicao or Draw

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Famalicao vs Alverca is FC Famalicao to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction: FC Famalicao to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: FC Famalicao 1.6, Alverca 0.9
Best bet: FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

FC Famalicao or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Famalicao to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Famalicao 52%, the draw 27% and Alverca 21%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Famalicao the favourite at 1.83.
2
Recent form
FC Famalicao took 6 points from their last 5 games and Alverca took 7 from 5. Alverca come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Famalicao won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Alverca won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Famalicao score 1.2 goals a game and let in 0.8. Alverca score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of FC Famalicao games and 9 of Alverca games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, FC Famalicao won 1 and Alverca won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended FC Famalicao 1, Alverca 0.
6
The safest bet
FC Famalicao or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

FC Famalicao form W D D D LAlverca form W W L D LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Famalicao vs Alverca: FC Famalicao are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Famalicao host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Mon 12 Oct, 19:15 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Our prediction for FC Famalicao vs Alverca is FC Famalicao to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.30.

FC Famalicao form

FC Famalicao have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Alverca form

Alverca have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Famalicao won 1, Alverca won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Famalicao 1, Alverca 0.

Our call

We expect FC Famalicao to score about 1.6 goals and Alverca about 0.9. That points to FC Famalicao to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is FC Famalicao to win and Over 2.5 at 3.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	FC Famalicao	Alverca
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	5
Draws	10	8
Losses	3	7
Goals scored	24	23
Goals conceded	16	27
Scored per game	1.2	1.1
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	4W 4D 1L	3W 5D 2L
Away record	3W 6D 2L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	45%	10%
Both teams scored	45%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
FC Famalicao to win	49%	2.04	1.83	-10.3%
A Draw	26%	3.81	3.25	-14.6%
Alverca to win	21%	4.79	4.50	-6.0%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.30	1.95	-15.2%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.97	1.71	-13.2%
FC Famalicao -0.5	49%	2.05	1.74	-15.0%
Alverca +0.5	45%	2.21	1.87	-15.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.21
Both teams to score	48%	2.08
FC Famalicao or Draw	79%	1.27
Alverca or Draw	48%	2.08
FC Famalicao to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.42
Alverca to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.29
FC Famalicao clean sheet	40%	2.49
Alverca clean sheet	21%	4.79

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%

1-012.4%

2-010.3%

2-19.4%

0-09.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Famalicao vs Alverca?

Our prediction for FC Famalicao vs Alverca is FC Famalicao to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for FC Famalicao vs Alverca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect FC Famalicao to score 1.6 goals and Alverca 0.9.

Will both teams score in FC Famalicao vs Alverca?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of FC Famalicao last 20 games and 14 of Alverca last 20.

How are FC Famalicao playing?

How are Alverca playing?

What happened when FC Famalicao and Alverca last met?

It ended FC Famalicao 1, Alverca 0. In the last 2 meetings FC Famalicao won 1 and Alverca won 1.

What is the best bet for FC Famalicao vs Alverca?

FC Famalicao or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Famalicao against Alverca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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