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Predictions › Portugal › FC Famalicao vs Arouca
Primeira LigaFri 6 Nov, 20:45 Portugal time

FC Famalicao vs Arouca prediction

Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

FC FamalicaoHome
1.19 : 1.07
expected goals
AroucaAway
38%FC Famalicao
30%Draw
32%Arouca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Famalicao vs Arouca is FC Famalicao to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
FC Famalicao to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Famalicao 1.2, Arouca 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.101 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Famalicao 38%, the draw 30% and Arouca 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Famalicao took 8 points from their last 5 games and Arouca took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Famalicao won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Arouca won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Famalicao score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Arouca score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of FC Famalicao games and 11 of Arouca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, FC Famalicao won 1 and Arouca won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended FC Famalicao 1, Arouca 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Famalicaorecent form-1%
  • Aroucarecent form+1%
  • FC Famalicaorest between games-2%
FC Famalicao form D L L W DArouca form D W W D LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Famalicao vs Arouca: FC Famalicao shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Famalicao host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Fri 6 Nov, 20:45 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Our prediction for FC Famalicao vs Arouca is FC Famalicao to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

FC Famalicao form

FC Famalicao have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Arouca form

Arouca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Famalicao won 1, Arouca won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished FC Famalicao 1, Arouca 0.

Our call

We expect FC Famalicao to score about 1.2 goals and Arouca about 1.1. That points to FC Famalicao to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC FamalicaoArouca
Games played2020
Wins710
Draws103
Losses37
Goals scored2728
Goals conceded1922
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game0.91.1
Home record3W 4D 2L6W 1D 2L
Away record4W 6D 1L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets45%35%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals67%1.50
Over 2.5 goals39%2.54
Over 3.5 goals19%5.17
Both teams to score47%2.15
FC Famalicao or Draw68%1.47
Arouca or Draw62%1.61
FC Famalicao to win and Over 2.519%5.28
Arouca to win and Over 2.516%6.41
FC Famalicao clean sheet34%2.92
Arouca clean sheet30%3.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
1-011.6%
0-011.2%
0-110.3%
2-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Famalicao vs Arouca?

Our prediction for FC Famalicao vs Arouca is FC Famalicao to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for FC Famalicao vs Arouca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect FC Famalicao to score 1.2 goals and Arouca 1.1.

Will both teams score in FC Famalicao vs Arouca?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of FC Famalicao last 20 games and 10 of Arouca last 20.

How are FC Famalicao playing?

FC Famalicao have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Arouca playing?

Arouca have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when FC Famalicao and Arouca last met?

It ended FC Famalicao 1, Arouca 0. In the last 2 meetings FC Famalicao won 1 and Arouca won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Famalicao vs Arouca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Famalicao against Arouca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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