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Predictions › Netherlands › FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam
EredivisieSun 18 Oct, 14:45 Netherlands time

FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction

Euroborg

FC GroningenHome
1.18 : 1.86
expected goals
Ajax AmsterdamAway
23%FC Groningen
24%Draw
53%Ajax
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Groningen 1.2, Ajax Amsterdam 1.9
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price 2.901 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Groningen 23%, the draw 24% and Ajax Amsterdam 53%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Groningen took 5 points from their last 5 games and Ajax Amsterdam took 10 from 5. Ajax Amsterdam come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Groningen won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Ajax Amsterdam won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Groningen score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Ajax Amsterdam score 2.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of FC Groningen games and 12 of Ajax Amsterdam games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, FC Groningen won 1 and Ajax Amsterdam won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Ajax Amsterdam 2, FC Groningen 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Groningenrecent form-1%
  • Ajaxrecent form+3%
FC Groningen form W D D L LAjax form D W W L WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam: Ajax Amsterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Groningen host Ajax Amsterdam in the Eredivisie on Sun 18 Oct, 14:45 at Euroborg. Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

FC Groningen form

FC Groningen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. FC Groningen won 1, Ajax Amsterdam won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Ajax Amsterdam 2, FC Groningen 0.

Our call

We expect FC Groningen to score about 1.2 goals and Ajax Amsterdam about 1.9. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 2.90.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC GroningenAjax
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws48
Losses84
Goals scored3540
Goals conceded3221
Scored per game1.82.0
Conceded per game1.61.1
Home record5W 2D 3L3W 5D 3L
Away record3W 2D 5L5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets20%40%
Both teams scored75%60%
Over 2.5 goals75%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.71
Over 3.5 goals36%2.77
Both teams to score59%1.69
FC Groningen or Draw47%2.12
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw77%1.30
FC Groningen to win and Over 2.515%6.68
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.536%2.76
FC Groningen clean sheet16%6.45
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet31%3.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
1-29.8%
0-28.3%
0-18.3%
2-16.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect FC Groningen to score 1.2 goals and Ajax Amsterdam 1.9.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of FC Groningen last 20 games and 12 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20.

How are FC Groningen playing?

FC Groningen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

Ajax Amsterdam have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when FC Groningen and Ajax Amsterdam last met?

It ended Ajax Amsterdam 2, FC Groningen 0. In the last 3 meetings FC Groningen won 1 and Ajax Amsterdam won 2.

What is the best bet for FC Groningen vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Groningen against Ajax. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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