Predictions › Netherlands › FC Groningen vs Heerenveen

EredivisieSat 21 Nov, 20:00 Netherlands time

FC Groningen vs Heerenveen prediction

Euroborg

FC GroningenHome

1.62 : 1.72

expected goals

HeerenveenAway

36%FC Groningen

24%Draw

40%Heerenveen

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Heerenveen is Heerenveen to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction: Heerenveen to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: FC Groningen 1.6, Heerenveen 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score: 66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Groningen 36%, the draw 24% and Heerenveen 40%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make FC Groningen the favourite at 2.40, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
FC Groningen took 4 points from their last 5 games and Heerenveen took 12 from 5. Heerenveen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Groningen won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Heerenveen won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Groningen score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.9. Heerenveen score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of FC Groningen games and 12 of Heerenveen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, FC Groningen won 1 and Heerenveen won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Heerenveen 0, FC Groningen 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

FC Groningenrecent form-6%
Heerenveenrecent form+7%

FC Groningen form L L L D LHeerenveen form W W W W WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Groningen vs Heerenveen: Heerenveen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Groningen host Heerenveen in the Eredivisie on Sat 21 Nov, 20:00 at Euroborg. Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Heerenveen is Heerenveen to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

FC Groningen form

FC Groningen have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Heerenveen form

Heerenveen have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. FC Groningen won 1, Heerenveen won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Heerenveen 0, FC Groningen 2.

Our call

We expect FC Groningen to score about 1.6 goals and Heerenveen about 1.7. That points to Heerenveen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	FC Groningen	Heerenveen
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	9
Draws	4	5
Losses	8	6
Goals scored	41	36
Goals conceded	38	28
Scored per game	2.0	1.8
Conceded per game	1.9	1.4
Home record	4W 2D 4L	6W 2D 2L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	35%
Both teams scored	75%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	80%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
FC Groningen to win	35%	2.85	2.40	-15.9%
A Draw	23%	4.27	3.75	-12.2%
Heerenveen to win	39%	2.56	2.50	-2.4%
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.29	1.91	-16.6%
Under 3.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.74	-14.1%
FC Groningen -0.5	38%	2.64	2.25	-14.8%
Heerenveen +0.5	56%	1.78	1.51	-15.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.17
Over 2.5 goals	65%	1.54
Over 3.5 goals	43%	2.34
Both teams to score	66%	1.51
FC Groningen or Draw	60%	1.67
Heerenveen or Draw	64%	1.56
FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.85
Heerenveen to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.41
FC Groningen clean sheet	18%	5.58
Heerenveen clean sheet	20%	5.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%

1-28.5%

2-18.0%

2-26.9%

0-15.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Heerenveen is Heerenveen to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect FC Groningen to score 1.6 goals and Heerenveen 1.7.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of FC Groningen last 20 games and 9 of Heerenveen last 20.

How are FC Groningen playing?

How are Heerenveen playing?

What happened when FC Groningen and Heerenveen last met?

It ended Heerenveen 0, FC Groningen 2. In the last 1 meeting FC Groningen won 1 and Heerenveen won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Groningen vs Heerenveen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Groningen against Heerenveen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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