Predictions › Netherlands › FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam

EredivisieSun 1 Nov, 15:45 Netherlands time

FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction

Euroborg

FC GroningenHome

2.29 : 1.41

expected goals

Sparta RotterdamAway

57%FC Groningen

21%Draw

23%Sparta

Eagle safe pickFC Groningen or Draw

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is FC Groningen to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is FC Groningen or Draw at 1.29.

Prediction: FC Groningen to win
Chance: 57%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: FC Groningen 2.3, Sparta Rotterdam 1.4
Best bet: FC Groningen or Draw at 1.29
Both teams to score: 68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

FC Groningen or Draw

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5

44% chanceFair price 2.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Groningen 57%, the draw 21% and Sparta Rotterdam 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
FC Groningen took 8 points from their last 5 games and Sparta Rotterdam took 5 from 5. FC Groningen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Groningen won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Sparta Rotterdam won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Groningen score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.7. Sparta Rotterdam score 1.3 and let in 2.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of FC Groningen games and 15 of Sparta Rotterdam games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, FC Groningen won 0 and Sparta Rotterdam won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sparta Rotterdam 2, FC Groningen 0.
6
The safest bet
FC Groningen or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

FC Groningenrecent form+3%
Spartarecent form-3%

FC Groningen form D W W D DSparta form D D L L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: FC Groningen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Groningen host Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie on Sun 1 Nov, 15:45 at Euroborg. Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is FC Groningen to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is FC Groningen or Draw at 1.29.

FC Groningen form

FC Groningen have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Sparta Rotterdam form

Sparta Rotterdam have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 47 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Groningen won 0, Sparta Rotterdam won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sparta Rotterdam 2, FC Groningen 0.

Our call

We expect FC Groningen to score about 2.3 goals and Sparta Rotterdam about 1.4. That points to FC Groningen to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is FC Groningen or Draw at 1.29. Our bold bet is FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	FC Groningen	Sparta
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	3
Draws	4	6
Losses	7	11
Goals scored	40	26
Goals conceded	34	47
Scored per game	2.0	1.3
Conceded per game	1.7	2.4
Home record	5W 2D 3L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Both teams scored	75%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	1.40
Over 3.5 goals	51%	1.98
Both teams to score	68%	1.46
FC Groningen or Draw	77%	1.29
Sparta Rotterdam or Draw	43%	2.31
FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5	45%	2.22
Sparta Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.84
FC Groningen clean sheet	24%	4.11
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	10%	9.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.1%

1-18.5%

3-17.0%

2-06.5%

2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Our prediction for FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is FC Groningen to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is FC Groningen or Draw at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 3-1. We expect FC Groningen to score 2.3 goals and Sparta Rotterdam 1.4.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of FC Groningen last 20 games and 13 of Sparta Rotterdam last 20.

How are FC Groningen playing?

How are Sparta Rotterdam playing?

What happened when FC Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam last met?

It ended Sparta Rotterdam 2, FC Groningen 0. In the last 2 meetings FC Groningen won 0 and Sparta Rotterdam won 2.

What is the best bet for FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

FC Groningen or Draw at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Groningen against Sparta. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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