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Predictions › Conference League › FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris
Conference LeagueThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UTC

FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris prediction

AIL Arena

FC LuganoHome
1.98 : 1.16
expected goals
Kauno ZalgirisAway
56%FC Lugano
23%Draw
21%Kauno Zalgiris
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris is FC Lugano to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
FC Lugano to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Lugano 2.0, Kauno Zalgiris 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Lugano to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Lugano 56%, the draw 23% and Kauno Zalgiris 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Lugano took 10 points from their last 5 games and Kauno Zalgiris took 0 from 2. FC Lugano come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    FC Lugano score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. Kauno Zalgiris score 0.5 and let in 4.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of FC Lugano games and 2 of Kauno Zalgiris games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Luganorecent form+3%
  • Kauno Zalgirisrecent form-3%
FC Lugano form D W D W DKauno Zalgiris form D L W L LHome edge in this league 36% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris: FC Lugano are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Lugano host Kauno Zalgiris in the Conference League on Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 at AIL Arena. Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris is FC Lugano to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

FC Lugano form

FC Lugano have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 games, with 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Kauno Zalgiris form

Kauno Zalgiris have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 2 games, with 1 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 2 results read L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Lugano to score about 2.0 goals and Kauno Zalgiris about 1.2. That points to FC Lugano to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is FC Lugano to win and Over 2.5 at 2.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 5 games in all competitions.

FC LuganoKauno Zalgiris
Games played52
Wins30
Draws10
Losses12
Goals scored111
Goals conceded78
Scored per game2.20.5
Conceded per game1.44.0
Home record2W 1D 0L0W 0D 1L
Away record1W 0D 1L0W 0D 1L
Clean sheets0%0%
Both teams scored80%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%100%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.65
Over 3.5 goals38%2.61
Both teams to score60%1.68
FC Lugano or Draw79%1.27
Kauno Zalgiris or Draw44%2.27
FC Lugano to win and Over 2.539%2.54
Kauno Zalgiris to win and Over 2.514%7.18
FC Lugano clean sheet31%3.18
Kauno Zalgiris clean sheet14%7.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
2-19.8%
2-08.5%
1-08.0%
3-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris is FC Lugano to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect FC Lugano to score 2.0 goals and Kauno Zalgiris 1.2.

Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of FC Lugano last 5 games and 1 of Kauno Zalgiris last 2.

How are FC Lugano playing?

FC Lugano have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 5 games, with 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Kauno Zalgiris playing?

Kauno Zalgiris have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 2 games, with 1 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 2 results read L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Lugano vs Kauno Zalgiris?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Lugano against Kauno Zalgiris. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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