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Predictions › Conference League › FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade
Conference LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade prediction

AIL Arena

FC LuganoHome
1.40 : 1.50
expected goals
Red Star BelgradeAway
35%FC Lugano
26%Draw
39%Red Star
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade is Red Star Belgrade to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Red Star Belgrade to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Lugano 1.4, Red Star Belgrade 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Red Star Belgrade to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 4.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Lugano 35%, the draw 26% and Red Star Belgrade 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Red Star Belgrade the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Lugano took 4 points from their last 3 games and Red Star Belgrade took 10 from 5. Red Star Belgrade come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    FC Lugano score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.0. Red Star Belgrade score 0.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of FC Lugano games and 1 of Red Star Belgrade games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Luganorecent form+4%
  • Red Starrecent form-1%
  • FC Luganorest between games-3%
  • Red Starrest between games-3%
FC Lugano form D W D W WRed Star form L W L L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade: Red Star Belgrade shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Lugano host Red Star Belgrade in the Conference League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at AIL Arena. Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade is Red Star Belgrade to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

FC Lugano form

FC Lugano have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 3 games, with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 3 results read W, D, L, newest first.

Red Star Belgrade form

Red Star Belgrade have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 10 games, with 8 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Lugano to score about 1.4 goals and Red Star Belgrade about 1.5. That points to Red Star Belgrade to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Red Star Belgrade to win and Over 2.5 at 4.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 10 games in all competitions.

FC LuganoRed Star
Games played310
Wins15
Draws12
Losses13
Goals scored38
Goals conceded38
Scored per game1.00.8
Conceded per game1.00.8
Home record1W 1D 0L2W 2D 1L
Away record0W 0D 1L3W 0D 2L
Clean sheets0%50%
Both teams scored67%30%
Over 2.5 goals33%10%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Lugano to win33%3.002.75-8.3%
A Draw26%3.903.65-6.3%
Red Star Belgrade to win37%2.712.35-13.2%
Over 2.5 goals53%1.891.65-12.7%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.412.10-13.0%
FC Lugano +0.557%1.771.54-12.9%
Red Star Belgrade -0.538%2.632.20-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.26
Over 2.5 goals55%1.80
Over 3.5 goals33%3.02
Both teams to score59%1.69
FC Lugano or Draw61%1.65
Red Star Belgrade or Draw65%1.53
FC Lugano to win and Over 2.522%4.49
Red Star Belgrade to win and Over 2.525%3.93
FC Lugano clean sheet22%4.49
Red Star Belgrade clean sheet25%4.05

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
1-28.7%
2-18.1%
0-17.6%
1-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?

Our prediction for FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade is Red Star Belgrade to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect FC Lugano to score 1.4 goals and Red Star Belgrade 1.5.

Will both teams score in FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of FC Lugano last 3 games and 3 of Red Star Belgrade last 10.

How are FC Lugano playing?

FC Lugano have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last 3 games, with 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 3 results read W, D, L, newest first.

How are Red Star Belgrade playing?

Red Star Belgrade have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 10 games, with 8 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Lugano against Red Star. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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