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Predictions › Conference League › FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam
Conference LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction

MCH Arena

FC MidtjyllandHome
1.65 : 1.96
expected goals
Ajax AmsterdamAway
33%Midtjylland
23%Draw
45%Ajax
Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score
1.41

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.41.

Prediction
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Midtjylland 1.6, Ajax Amsterdam 2.0
Best bet
Both teams to score at 1.41
Both teams to score
70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score
71% chanceFair price 1.411 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.961 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Midtjylland 33%, the draw 23% and Ajax Amsterdam 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Midtjylland took 10 points from their last 5 games and Ajax Amsterdam took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Midtjylland won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Ajax Amsterdam won 7 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Midtjylland score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. Ajax Amsterdam score 2.2 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of FC Midtjylland games and 13 of Ajax Amsterdam games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Both teams to score has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Midtjyllandrecent form+1%
  • Ajaxrecent form+1%
  • Midtjyllandrest between games-5%
  • Ajaxrest between games-5%
Midtjylland form D L W D WAjax form D W W L DHome edge in this league 36% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam: Ajax Amsterdam shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Midtjylland host Ajax Amsterdam in the Conference League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at MCH Arena. Our prediction for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.41.

FC Midtjylland form

FC Midtjylland have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Midtjylland to score about 1.6 goals and Ajax Amsterdam about 2.0. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.41. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 2.96.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MidtjyllandAjax
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws86
Losses24
Goals scored3444
Goals conceded2322
Scored per game1.72.2
Conceded per game1.11.1
Home record6W 2D 2L3W 5D 3L
Away record4W 6D 0L7W 1D 1L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.14
Over 2.5 goals70%1.43
Over 3.5 goals49%2.06
Both teams to score70%1.43
FC Midtjylland or Draw55%1.81
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw67%1.48
FC Midtjylland to win and Over 2.525%4.02
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.535%2.87
FC Midtjylland clean sheet14%7.07
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet19%5.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.3%
1-28.6%
2-17.2%
2-27.1%
1-35.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Our prediction for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.41.

What is the score prediction for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect FC Midtjylland to score 1.6 goals and Ajax Amsterdam 2.0.

Will both teams score in FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of FC Midtjylland last 20 games and 13 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20.

How are FC Midtjylland playing?

FC Midtjylland have 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

Ajax Amsterdam have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Midtjylland vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Both teams to score at 1.41, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Midtjylland against Ajax. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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