Predictions › Denmark › FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København

Danish SuperligaSun 11 Oct, 16:00 Denmark time

FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København prediction

MCH Arena

FC MidtjyllandHome

1.70 : 1.97

expected goals

F.C. KøbenhavnAway

33%Midtjylland

23%Draw

44%København

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.36

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København is F.C. København to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.36.

Prediction: F.C. København to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.7, F.C. København 2.0
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.36
Both teams to score: 71%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

73% chanceFair price 1.361 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

F.C. København to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.021 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Midtjylland 33%, the draw 23% and F.C. København 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
FC Midtjylland took 9 points from their last 5 games and F.C. København took 15 from 5. F.C. København come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Midtjylland won 4 of their last 10 games at home. F.C. København won 8 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Midtjylland score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. F.C. København score 2.9 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of FC Midtjylland games and 17 of F.C. København games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, FC Midtjylland won 1 and F.C. København won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended FC Midtjylland 2, F.C. København 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Midtjyllandrecent form+3%
Københavnrecent form+7%

Midtjylland form D W D W DKøbenhavn form W W W W WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København: F.C. København shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Midtjylland host F.C. København in the Danish Superliga on Sun 11 Oct, 16:00 at MCH Arena. Our prediction for FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København is F.C. København to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.36.

FC Midtjylland form

FC Midtjylland have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

F.C. København form

F.C. København have 16 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Midtjylland won 1, F.C. København won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished FC Midtjylland 2, F.C. København 1.

Our call

We expect FC Midtjylland to score about 1.7 goals and F.C. København about 2.0. That points to F.C. København to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.36. Our bold bet is F.C. København to win and Over 2.5 at 3.02.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Midtjylland	København
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	16
Draws	9	1
Losses	3	3
Goals scored	32	58
Goals conceded	24	19
Scored per game	1.6	2.9
Conceded per game	1.2	0.9
Home record	4W 3D 3L	8W 0D 1L
Away record	4W 6D 0L	8W 1D 2L
Clean sheets	20%	45%
Both teams scored	75%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	85%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.13
Over 2.5 goals	71%	1.41
Over 3.5 goals	50%	2.00
Both teams to score	71%	1.41
FC Midtjylland or Draw	56%	1.79
F.C. København or Draw	67%	1.50
FC Midtjylland to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.86
F.C. København to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.88
FC Midtjylland clean sheet	14%	7.18
F.C. København clean sheet	18%	5.50

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.0%

1-28.4%

2-17.3%

2-27.1%

1-35.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København?

Our prediction for FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København is F.C. København to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.36.

What is the score prediction for FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect FC Midtjylland to score 1.7 goals and F.C. København 2.0.

Will both teams score in FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København?

Both teams to score has a 71% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of FC Midtjylland last 20 games and 10 of F.C. København last 20.

How are FC Midtjylland playing?

How are F.C. København playing?

What happened when FC Midtjylland and F.C. København last met?

It ended FC Midtjylland 2, F.C. København 1. In the last 2 meetings FC Midtjylland won 1 and F.C. København won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Midtjylland vs F.C. København?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.36, with a 73% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Midtjylland against København. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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