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Predictions › Denmark › FC Nordsjælland vs AGF
Danish SuperligaSun 13 Sept, 16:00 Denmark time

FC Nordsjælland vs AGF prediction

Right to Dream Park

FC NordsjællandHome
1.81 : 1.13
expected goals
AGFAway
53%Nordsjælland
24%Draw
23%AGF
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.65

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Nordsjælland vs AGF is FC Nordsjælland to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.65.

Prediction
FC Nordsjælland to win
Chance
53%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Nordsjælland 1.8, AGF 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.65
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
60% chancePrice 1.651 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Nordsjælland to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.051 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Nordsjælland 53%, the draw 24% and AGF 23%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Nordsjælland the favourite at 1.83.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Nordsjælland took 10 points from their last 5 games and AGF took 2 from 5. FC Nordsjælland come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Nordsjælland won 6 of their last 9 games at home. AGF won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Nordsjælland score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. AGF score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of FC Nordsjælland games and 11 of AGF games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, FC Nordsjælland won 0 and AGF won 2 with 2 draws. The last one ended FC Nordsjælland 1, AGF 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 60% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nordsjællandrecent form+3%
  • AGFrecent form-4%
Nordsjælland form D L W W WAGF form D L L L DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Nordsjælland vs AGF: FC Nordsjælland are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Nordsjælland host AGF in the Danish Superliga on Sun 13 Sept, 16:00 at Right to Dream Park. Our prediction for FC Nordsjælland vs AGF is FC Nordsjælland to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.65.

FC Nordsjælland form

FC Nordsjælland have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

AGF form

AGF have 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. FC Nordsjælland won 0, AGF won 2 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Nordsjælland 1, AGF 1.

Our call

We expect FC Nordsjælland to score about 1.8 goals and AGF about 1.1. That points to FC Nordsjælland to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.65. Our bold bet is FC Nordsjælland to win and Over 2.5 at 3.05.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NordsjællandAGF
Games played2020
Wins106
Draws710
Losses34
Goals scored3133
Goals conceded1926
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game0.91.3
Home record6W 3D 0L3W 6D 1L
Away record4W 4D 3L3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored60%80%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Nordsjælland to win52%1.921.83-4.6%
A Draw23%4.414.00-9.3%
AGF to win21%4.683.90-16.7%
Over 3.5 goals37%2.692.15-20.2%
Under 3.5 goals60%1.661.65-0.7%
FC Nordsjælland -0.551%1.951.77-9.1%
AGF +0.546%2.171.91-11.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals57%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.93
Both teams to score57%1.74
FC Nordsjælland or Draw77%1.30
AGF or Draw47%2.11
FC Nordsjælland to win and Over 2.535%2.84
AGF to win and Over 2.514%6.97
FC Nordsjælland clean sheet32%3.11
AGF clean sheet16%6.14

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.8%
1-08.9%
2-08.6%
1-26.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Nordsjælland vs AGF?

Our prediction for FC Nordsjælland vs AGF is FC Nordsjælland to win, with a 53% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.65.

What is the score prediction for FC Nordsjælland vs AGF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect FC Nordsjælland to score 1.8 goals and AGF 1.1.

Will both teams score in FC Nordsjælland vs AGF?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of FC Nordsjælland last 20 games and 16 of AGF last 20.

How are FC Nordsjælland playing?

FC Nordsjælland have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are AGF playing?

AGF have 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when FC Nordsjælland and AGF last met?

It ended FC Nordsjælland 1, AGF 1. In the last 4 meetings FC Nordsjælland won 0 and AGF won 2.

What is the best bet for FC Nordsjælland vs AGF?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.65, with a 60% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nordsjælland against AGF. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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