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Predictions › Champions League › FC Porto vs Napoli
Champions LeagueWed 4 Nov, 20:00 UTC

FC Porto vs Napoli prediction

Estádio do Dragão

FC PortoHome
1.52 : 1.06
expected goals
NapoliAway
47%FC Porto
27%Draw
26%Napoli
Eagle safe pickFC Porto or Draw
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli is FC Porto to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is FC Porto or Draw at 1.32.

Prediction
FC Porto to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Porto 1.5, Napoli 1.1
Best bet
FC Porto or Draw at 1.32
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

FC Porto or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Porto to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Porto 47%, the draw 27% and Napoli 26%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Porto the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Porto took 9 points from their last 5 games and Napoli took 7 from 5. FC Porto come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Porto won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Napoli won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Porto score 1.7 goals a game and let in 0.8. Napoli score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of FC Porto games and 9 of Napoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    FC Porto or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Portorest between games-5%
  • Napolirest between games-5%
FC Porto form D L L W WNapoli form D W L L WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Porto vs Napoli: FC Porto are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Porto host Napoli in the Champions League on Wed 4 Nov, 20:00 at Estádio do Dragão. Our prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli is FC Porto to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is FC Porto or Draw at 1.32.

FC Porto form

FC Porto have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Napoli form

Napoli have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Porto to score about 1.5 goals and Napoli about 1.1. That points to FC Porto to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is FC Porto or Draw at 1.32. Our bold bet is FC Porto to win and Over 2.5 at 3.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC PortoNapoli
Games played2020
Wins149
Draws14
Losses57
Goals scored3431
Goals conceded1723
Scored per game1.71.6
Conceded per game0.81.1
Home record7W 1D 2L6W 1D 4L
Away record7W 0D 3L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets40%45%
Both teams scored45%40%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Porto to win45%2.212.15-2.9%
A Draw26%3.853.60-6.4%
Napoli to win25%4.063.10-23.7%
Over 2.5 goals48%2.091.77-15.5%
Under 2.5 goals46%2.161.95-9.5%
FC Porto -0.544%2.272.00-11.7%
Napoli +0.550%2.001.65-17.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.10
Over 3.5 goals26%3.86
Both teams to score52%1.93
FC Porto or Draw74%1.34
Napoli or Draw53%1.90
FC Porto to win and Over 2.528%3.61
Napoli to win and Over 2.514%7.11
FC Porto clean sheet35%2.88
Napoli clean sheet22%4.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
1-010.8%
2-19.3%
2-08.8%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
LaLiga

Real Madrid Eye Scott McTominay as Napoli Contract Talks Stall

Real Madrid are monitoring Scott McTominay while Chelsea eye Frenkie de Jong ahead of the January transfer window.

9 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?

Our prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli is FC Porto to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is FC Porto or Draw at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect FC Porto to score 1.5 goals and Napoli 1.1.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Napoli?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of FC Porto last 20 games and 8 of Napoli last 20.

How are FC Porto playing?

FC Porto have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Napoli playing?

Napoli have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Porto vs Napoli?

FC Porto or Draw at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Porto against Napoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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