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Predictions › Champions League › FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven
Champions LeagueTue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction

Estádio do Dragão

FC PortoHome
1.62 : 1.29
expected goals
PSV EindhovenAway
44%FC Porto
26%Draw
30%PSV
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven is FC Porto to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
FC Porto to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Porto 1.6, PSV Eindhoven 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Porto to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Porto 44%, the draw 26% and PSV Eindhoven 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Porto took 12 points from their last 5 games and PSV Eindhoven took 10 from 5. FC Porto come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Porto won 8 of their last 11 games at home. PSV Eindhoven won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Porto score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. PSV Eindhoven score 3.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of FC Porto games and 17 of PSV Eindhoven games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Portorecent form+3%
  • PSVrecent form+1%
  • FC Portorest between games-5%
  • PSVrest between games-5%
FC Porto form D W W L WPSV form D L W D WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: FC Porto shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Porto host PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on Tue 20 Oct, 19:00 at Estádio do Dragão. Our prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven is FC Porto to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

FC Porto form

FC Porto have 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

PSV Eindhoven form

PSV Eindhoven have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 61 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Porto to score about 1.6 goals and PSV Eindhoven about 1.3. That points to FC Porto to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is FC Porto to win and Over 2.5 at 3.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC PortoPSV
Games played2020
Wins1514
Draws23
Losses33
Goals scored3761
Goals conceded1628
Scored per game1.93.0
Conceded per game0.81.4
Home record8W 2D 1L8W 2D 1L
Away record7W 0D 2L6W 1D 2L
Clean sheets40%10%
Both teams scored50%90%
Over 2.5 goals50%85%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.80
Over 3.5 goals33%3.00
Both teams to score59%1.70
FC Porto or Draw70%1.43
PSV Eindhoven or Draw56%1.80
FC Porto to win and Over 2.529%3.44
PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.519%5.25
FC Porto clean sheet27%3.65
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet20%5.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
2-19.2%
1-08.1%
1-27.4%
2-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

Our prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven is FC Porto to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect FC Porto to score 1.6 goals and PSV Eindhoven 1.3.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of FC Porto last 20 games and 18 of PSV Eindhoven last 20.

How are FC Porto playing?

FC Porto have 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are PSV Eindhoven playing?

PSV Eindhoven have 14 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 61 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Porto against PSV. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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