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Predictions › Japan › FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
J1 LeagueWed 21 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol prediction

Tokyo Stadium

FC TokyoHome
1.59 : 1.52
expected goals
Kashiwa ReysolAway
39%Tokyo
25%Draw
36%Kashiwa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol is FC Tokyo to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
FC Tokyo to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Tokyo 1.6, Kashiwa Reysol 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Tokyo to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Tokyo 39%, the draw 25% and Kashiwa Reysol 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Tokyo took 13 points from their last 5 games and Kashiwa Reysol took 9 from 5. FC Tokyo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Tokyo won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Kashiwa Reysol won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Tokyo score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Kashiwa Reysol score 1.7 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of FC Tokyo games and 9 of Kashiwa Reysol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, FC Tokyo won 1 and Kashiwa Reysol won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Kashiwa Reysol 1, FC Tokyo 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tokyorecent form+4%
  • Tokyorest between games-5%
  • Kashiwarest between games-2%
Tokyo form D W W W DKashiwa form D W L W LHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol: FC Tokyo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Tokyo host Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League on Wed 21 Oct, 10:00 at Tokyo Stadium. Our prediction for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol is FC Tokyo to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

FC Tokyo form

FC Tokyo have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Kashiwa Reysol form

Kashiwa Reysol have 11 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Tokyo won 1, Kashiwa Reysol won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Kashiwa Reysol 1, FC Tokyo 3.

Our call

We expect FC Tokyo to score about 1.6 goals and Kashiwa Reysol about 1.5. That points to FC Tokyo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is FC Tokyo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TokyoKashiwa
Games played2020
Wins1111
Draws50
Losses49
Goals scored3534
Goals conceded2228
Scored per game1.81.7
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record7W 1D 3L5W 0D 5L
Away record4W 4D 1L6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets45%15%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.67
Over 3.5 goals38%2.65
Both teams to score63%1.59
FC Tokyo or Draw64%1.56
Kashiwa Reysol or Draw61%1.64
FC Tokyo to win and Over 2.527%3.73
Kashiwa Reysol to win and Over 2.525%4.05
FC Tokyo clean sheet22%4.58
Kashiwa Reysol clean sheet20%4.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-18.6%
1-28.2%
2-26.5%
1-06.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Our prediction for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol is FC Tokyo to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect FC Tokyo to score 1.6 goals and Kashiwa Reysol 1.5.

Will both teams score in FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of FC Tokyo last 20 games and 9 of Kashiwa Reysol last 20.

How are FC Tokyo playing?

FC Tokyo have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Kashiwa Reysol playing?

Kashiwa Reysol have 11 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol last met?

It ended Kashiwa Reysol 1, FC Tokyo 3. In the last 2 meetings FC Tokyo won 1 and Kashiwa Reysol won 1.

What is the best bet for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tokyo against Kashiwa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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