Predictions › Netherlands › FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam

EredivisieSun 8 Nov, 13:30 Netherlands time

FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam prediction

De Grolsch Veste

FC TwenteHome

1.32 : 1.54

expected goals

Ajax AmsterdamAway

32%FC Twente

26%Draw

42%Ajax

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: Ajax Amsterdam to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: FC Twente 1.3, Ajax Amsterdam 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Twente 32%, the draw 26% and Ajax Amsterdam 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
FC Twente took 10 points from their last 5 games and Ajax Amsterdam took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
FC Twente won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Ajax Amsterdam won 7 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Twente score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.2. Ajax Amsterdam score 2.2 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of FC Twente games and 13 of Ajax Amsterdam games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, FC Twente won 1 and Ajax Amsterdam won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Ajax Amsterdam 1, FC Twente 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

FC Twenterecent form+1%
Ajaxrecent form+1%

FC Twente form D W L W DAjax form D W W L DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam: Ajax Amsterdam shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Twente host Ajax Amsterdam in the Eredivisie on Sun 8 Nov, 13:30 at De Grolsch Veste. Our prediction for FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

FC Twente form

FC Twente have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Ajax Amsterdam form

Ajax Amsterdam have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Twente won 1, Ajax Amsterdam won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Ajax Amsterdam 1, FC Twente 2.

Our call

We expect FC Twente to score about 1.3 goals and Ajax Amsterdam about 1.5. That points to Ajax Amsterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 3.80.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	FC Twente	Ajax
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	10
Draws	4	6
Losses	4	4
Goals scored	38	44
Goals conceded	24	22
Scored per game	1.9	2.2
Conceded per game	1.2	1.1
Home record	7W 1D 2L	3W 5D 3L
Away record	5W 3D 2L	7W 1D 1L
Clean sheets	25%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.84
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.12
Both teams to score	58%	1.72
FC Twente or Draw	58%	1.72
Ajax Amsterdam or Draw	68%	1.47
FC Twente to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.98
Ajax Amsterdam to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.71
FC Twente clean sheet	21%	4.66
Ajax Amsterdam clean sheet	27%	3.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-29.0%

0-18.1%

2-17.7%

1-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Our prediction for FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam is Ajax Amsterdam to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect FC Twente to score 1.3 goals and Ajax Amsterdam 1.5.

Will both teams score in FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of FC Twente last 20 games and 13 of Ajax Amsterdam last 20.

How are FC Twente playing?

How are Ajax Amsterdam playing?

What happened when FC Twente and Ajax Amsterdam last met?

It ended Ajax Amsterdam 1, FC Twente 2. In the last 2 meetings FC Twente won 1 and Ajax Amsterdam won 1.

What is the best bet for FC Twente vs Ajax Amsterdam?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Twente against Ajax. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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