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Predictions › Conference League › FC Twente vs FC Thun
Conference LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

FC Twente vs FC Thun prediction

De Grolsch Veste

FC TwenteHome
2.87 : 0.94
expected goals
FC ThunAway
77%FC Twente
14%Draw
9%FC Thun
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Twente vs FC Thun is FC Twente to win, with a 77% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
FC Twente to win
Chance
77%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
FC Twente 2.9, FC Thun 0.9
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Twente to win and both score
38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Twente 77%, the draw 14% and FC Thun 9%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Twente the favourite at 1.21.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Twente took 13 points from their last 5 games and FC Thun took 0 from 2. FC Twente come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    FC Twente score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. FC Thun score 1.5 and let in 3.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of FC Twente games and 2 of FC Thun games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Twenterecent form+6%
  • FC Thunrecent form-3%
  • FC Thunrest between games-3%
FC Twente form W W W D WFC Thun form D L L W LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Twente vs FC Thun: FC Twente are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Twente host FC Thun in the Conference League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at De Grolsch Veste. Our prediction for FC Twente vs FC Thun is FC Twente to win, with a 77% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

FC Twente form

FC Twente have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

FC Thun form

FC Thun have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 2 games, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 2 results read L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Twente to score about 2.9 goals and FC Thun about 0.9. That points to FC Twente to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is FC Twente to win and both score at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC TwenteFC Thun
Games played202
Wins130
Draws40
Losses32
Goals scored433
Goals conceded237
Scored per game2.11.5
Conceded per game1.13.5
Home record9W 1D 1L0W 0D 1L
Away record4W 3D 2L0W 0D 1L
Clean sheets25%0%
Both teams scored65%100%
Over 2.5 goals65%100%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Twente to win76%1.311.21-7.8%
A Draw14%7.116.50-8.6%
FC Thun to win7%14.3710.50-26.9%
Over 3.5 goals48%2.071.83-11.3%
Under 3.5 goals46%2.171.87-13.8%
FC Twente -1.555%1.811.56-14.0%
FC Thun +1.539%2.552.20-13.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals90%1.12
Over 2.5 goals73%1.37
Over 3.5 goals53%1.90
Both teams to score58%1.73
FC Twente or Draw91%1.10
FC Thun or Draw23%4.28
FC Twente to win and Over 2.561%1.63
FC Thun to win and Over 2.56%15.86
FC Twente clean sheet39%2.55
FC Thun clean sheet6%17.61

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-09.2%
3-08.8%
2-18.6%
3-18.2%
1-16.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Twente vs FC Thun?

Our prediction for FC Twente vs FC Thun is FC Twente to win, with a 77% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for FC Twente vs FC Thun?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect FC Twente to score 2.9 goals and FC Thun 0.9.

Will both teams score in FC Twente vs FC Thun?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of FC Twente last 20 games and 2 of FC Thun last 2.

How are FC Twente playing?

FC Twente have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are FC Thun playing?

FC Thun have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 2 games, with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 1. Their last 2 results read L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Twente vs FC Thun?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Twente against FC Thun. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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