Predictions › Netherlands › FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

EredivisieSun 8 Nov, 19:00 Netherlands time

FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Stadion Galgenwaard

FC UtrechtHome

1.61 : 1.89

expected goals

NEC NijmegenAway

33%FC Utrecht

23%Draw

44%NEC

Eagle safe pickBoth teams to score

1.46

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.46.

Prediction: NEC Nijmegen to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: FC Utrecht 1.6, NEC Nijmegen 1.9
Best bet: Both teams to score at 1.46
Both teams to score: 68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Both teams to score

68% chanceFair price 1.461 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.051 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives FC Utrecht 33%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
FC Utrecht took 10 points from their last 5 games and NEC Nijmegen took 7 from 5. FC Utrecht come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
FC Utrecht won 6 of their last 10 games at home. NEC Nijmegen won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
FC Utrecht score 1.9 goals a game and let in 2.0. NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of FC Utrecht games and 13 of NEC Nijmegen games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, FC Utrecht won 2 and NEC Nijmegen won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended NEC Nijmegen 1, FC Utrecht 3.
6
The safest bet
Both teams to score has a 68% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

FC Utrechtrecent form+1%
NECrecent form+1%

FC Utrecht form D D W W LNEC form D W D D DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: NEC Nijmegen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Utrecht host NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie on Sun 8 Nov, 19:00 at Stadion Galgenwaard. Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.46.

FC Utrecht form

FC Utrecht have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. FC Utrecht won 2, NEC Nijmegen won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished NEC Nijmegen 1, FC Utrecht 3.

Our call

We expect FC Utrecht to score about 1.6 goals and NEC Nijmegen about 1.9. That points to NEC Nijmegen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Both teams to score at 1.46. Our bold bet is NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.05.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	FC Utrecht	NEC
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	5
Draws	4	10
Losses	6	5
Goals scored	38	32
Goals conceded	41	34
Scored per game	1.9	1.6
Conceded per game	2.0	1.7
Home record	6W 2D 2L	1W 8D 2L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	5%
Both teams scored	70%	85%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.15
Over 2.5 goals	68%	1.47
Over 3.5 goals	46%	2.16
Both teams to score	68%	1.46
FC Utrecht or Draw	56%	1.79
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	67%	1.49
FC Utrecht to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.09
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.98
FC Utrecht clean sheet	15%	6.61
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	20%	5.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.7%

1-28.7%

2-17.4%

2-27.0%

1-35.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Both teams to score at 1.46.

What is the score prediction for FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect FC Utrecht to score 1.6 goals and NEC Nijmegen 1.9.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of FC Utrecht last 20 games and 17 of NEC Nijmegen last 20.

How are FC Utrecht playing?

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

What happened when FC Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen last met?

It ended NEC Nijmegen 1, FC Utrecht 3. In the last 2 meetings FC Utrecht won 2 and NEC Nijmegen won 0.

What is the best bet for FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?

Both teams to score at 1.46, with a 68% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Utrecht against NEC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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