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Predictions › Netherlands › FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur
EredivisieSat 21 Nov, 17:45 Netherlands time

FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur prediction

Stadion Galgenwaard

FC UtrechtHome
1.73 : 1.52
expected goals
SC CambuurAway
42%FC Utrecht
24%Draw
33%Cambuur
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur is FC Utrecht to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
FC Utrecht to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
FC Utrecht 1.7, SC Cambuur 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

SC Cambuur to win
33% chancePrice 3.20+5.0% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Utrecht 42%, the draw 24% and SC Cambuur 33%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Utrecht the favourite at 1.95.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Utrecht took 7 points from their last 5 games and SC Cambuur took 10 from 5. SC Cambuur come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Utrecht won 5 of their last 10 games at home. SC Cambuur won 2 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Utrecht score 1.9 goals a game and let in 2.4. SC Cambuur score 2.1 and let in 2.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 of FC Utrecht games and 10 of SC Cambuur games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cambuurrecent form+3%
FC Utrecht form L L W D WCambuur form L W W W DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur: FC Utrecht shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Utrecht host SC Cambuur in the Eredivisie on Sat 21 Nov, 17:45 at Stadion Galgenwaard. Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur is FC Utrecht to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

FC Utrecht form

FC Utrecht have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 48 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

SC Cambuur form

SC Cambuur have 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 12 games, with 25 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Utrecht to score about 1.7 goals and SC Cambuur about 1.5. That points to FC Utrecht to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is SC Cambuur to win at 3.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC UtrechtCambuur
Games played2012
Wins84
Draws43
Losses85
Goals scored3825
Goals conceded4827
Scored per game1.92.1
Conceded per game2.42.3
Home record5W 2D 3L2W 1D 4L
Away record3W 2D 5L2W 2D 1L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored80%67%
Over 2.5 goals80%83%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Utrecht to win41%2.451.95-20.3%
A Draw24%4.233.80-10.1%
SC Cambuur to win33%3.053.20+5.0%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.432.10-13.5%
Under 3.5 goals52%1.931.63-15.8%
FC Utrecht -0.544%2.281.87-17.9%
SC Cambuur +0.549%2.031.74-14.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals63%1.58
Over 3.5 goals41%2.44
Both teams to score65%1.54
FC Utrecht or Draw67%1.50
SC Cambuur or Draw58%1.73
FC Utrecht to win and Over 2.530%3.28
SC Cambuur to win and Over 2.524%4.22
FC Utrecht clean sheet22%4.59
SC Cambuur clean sheet18%5.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%
2-18.8%
1-27.7%
2-26.7%
1-06.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur?

Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur is FC Utrecht to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect FC Utrecht to score 1.7 goals and SC Cambuur 1.5.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of FC Utrecht last 20 games and 8 of SC Cambuur last 12.

How are FC Utrecht playing?

FC Utrecht have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 48 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are SC Cambuur playing?

SC Cambuur have 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 12 games, with 25 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Utrecht vs SC Cambuur?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Utrecht against Cambuur. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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