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Predictions › Netherlands › FC Utrecht vs Willem II
EredivisieSun 11 Oct, 10:15 Netherlands time

FC Utrecht vs Willem II prediction

Stadion Galgenwaard

FC UtrechtHome
2.22 : 1.11
expected goals
Willem IIAway
62%FC Utrecht
21%Draw
17%Willem II
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs Willem II is FC Utrecht to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
FC Utrecht to win
Chance
62%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
FC Utrecht 2.2, Willem II 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Utrecht to win and Over 2.5
43% chanceFair price 2.321 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives FC Utrecht 62%, the draw 21% and Willem II 17%. The bookmakers agree and make FC Utrecht the favourite at 1.48.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    FC Utrecht took 5 points from their last 5 games and Willem II took 2 from 5. FC Utrecht come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    FC Utrecht won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Willem II won 0 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    FC Utrecht score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.9. Willem II score 0.9 and let in 2.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of FC Utrecht games and 5 of Willem II games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • FC Utrechtrecent form-1%
  • Willem IIrecent form-4%
FC Utrecht form L W D L DWillem II form L L D L DHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

FC Utrecht vs Willem II: FC Utrecht are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

FC Utrecht host Willem II in the Eredivisie on Sun 11 Oct, 10:15 at Stadion Galgenwaard. Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs Willem II is FC Utrecht to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

FC Utrecht form

FC Utrecht have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Willem II form

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect FC Utrecht to score about 2.2 goals and Willem II about 1.1. That points to FC Utrecht to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is FC Utrecht to win and Over 2.5 at 2.32.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FC UtrechtWillem II
Games played207
Wins90
Draws52
Losses65
Goals scored356
Goals conceded3920
Scored per game1.80.9
Conceded per game1.92.9
Home record6W 2D 2L0W 1D 3L
Away record3W 3D 4L0W 1D 2L
Clean sheets30%0%
Both teams scored60%71%
Over 2.5 goals60%71%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
FC Utrecht to win60%1.671.48-11.4%
A Draw20%4.924.50-8.5%
Willem II to win17%5.805.50-5.1%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.462.10-14.6%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.871.63-13.2%
FC Utrecht -1.539%2.582.15-16.6%
Willem II +1.555%1.811.56-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals85%1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.55
Over 3.5 goals43%2.35
Both teams to score60%1.66
FC Utrecht or Draw83%1.21
Willem II or Draw38%2.64
FC Utrecht to win and Over 2.546%2.18
Willem II to win and Over 2.512%8.55
FC Utrecht clean sheet33%3.03
Willem II clean sheet11%9.23

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.8%
1-19.3%
2-08.8%
1-07.4%
3-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win FC Utrecht vs Willem II?

Our prediction for FC Utrecht vs Willem II is FC Utrecht to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for FC Utrecht vs Willem II?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect FC Utrecht to score 2.2 goals and Willem II 1.1.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs Willem II?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of FC Utrecht last 20 games and 5 of Willem II last 7.

How are FC Utrecht playing?

FC Utrecht have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 39 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Willem II playing?

Willem II have 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 7 games, with 6 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for FC Utrecht vs Willem II?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in FC Utrecht against Willem II. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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