Predictions › Netherlands › Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar

EredivisieSat 10 Oct, 16:45 Netherlands time

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

De Kuip

Feyenoord RotterdamHome

1.84 : 1.23

expected goals

AZ AlkmaarAway

51%Feyenoord

24%Draw

25%AZ Alkmaar

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is Feyenoord Rotterdam to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction: Feyenoord Rotterdam to win
Chance: 51%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Feyenoord Rotterdam 1.8, AZ Alkmaar 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Feyenoord Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 2.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Feyenoord Rotterdam 51%, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Feyenoord Rotterdam the favourite at 1.77.
2
Recent form
Feyenoord Rotterdam took 10 points from their last 5 games and AZ Alkmaar took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Feyenoord Rotterdam won 5 of their last 9 games at home. AZ Alkmaar won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Feyenoord Rotterdam score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.2. AZ Alkmaar score 2.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Feyenoord Rotterdam games and 12 of AZ Alkmaar games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Feyenoord Rotterdam won 0 and AZ Alkmaar won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Feyenoord Rotterdam 1, AZ Alkmaar 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Feyenoordrecent form+3%
AZ Alkmaarrecent form+3%

Feyenoord form W W L W DAZ Alkmaar form W L D W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: Feyenoord Rotterdam are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Feyenoord Rotterdam host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie on Sat 10 Oct, 16:45 at De Kuip. Our prediction for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is Feyenoord Rotterdam to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Feyenoord Rotterdam form

Feyenoord Rotterdam have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Feyenoord Rotterdam won 0, AZ Alkmaar won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Feyenoord Rotterdam 1, AZ Alkmaar 1.

Our call

We expect Feyenoord Rotterdam to score about 1.8 goals and AZ Alkmaar about 1.2. That points to Feyenoord Rotterdam to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Feyenoord Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5 at 2.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Feyenoord	AZ Alkmaar
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	11
Draws	7	6
Losses	2	3
Goals scored	44	41
Goals conceded	24	22
Scored per game	2.2	2.0
Conceded per game	1.2	1.1
Home record	5W 4D 0L	7W 4D 0L
Away record	6W 3D 2L	4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Both teams scored	65%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win	48%	2.08	1.77	-15.1%
A Draw	24%	4.25	3.75	-11.8%
AZ Alkmaar to win	24%	4.14	3.95	-4.6%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.45	1.95	-20.4%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.71	-9.3%
Feyenoord Rotterdam -0.5	49%	2.04	1.71	-16.0%
AZ Alkmaar +0.5	45%	2.24	1.91	-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	59%	1.69
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	60%	1.66
Feyenoord Rotterdam or Draw	75%	1.33
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	49%	2.05
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.83
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.18
Feyenoord Rotterdam clean sheet	29%	3.41
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	16%	6.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%

2-19.7%

1-07.9%

2-07.9%

1-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our prediction for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is Feyenoord Rotterdam to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Feyenoord Rotterdam to score 1.8 goals and AZ Alkmaar 1.2.

Will both teams score in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Feyenoord Rotterdam last 20 games and 9 of AZ Alkmaar last 20.

How are Feyenoord Rotterdam playing?

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

What happened when Feyenoord Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last met?

It ended Feyenoord Rotterdam 1, AZ Alkmaar 1. In the last 2 meetings Feyenoord Rotterdam won 0 and AZ Alkmaar won 0.

What is the best bet for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Feyenoord against AZ Alkmaar. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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