Predictions › Italy › Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Serie AThu 29 Oct, 19:45 Italy time

Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction

Stadio Artemio Franchi

FiorentinaHome

1.39 : 1.33

expected goals

AtalantaAway

38%Fiorentina

27%Draw

35%Atalanta

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta is Fiorentina to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Fiorentina to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.4, Atalanta 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.741 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Fiorentina 38%, the draw 27% and Atalanta 35%. The bookmakers agree and make Fiorentina the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Fiorentina took 4 points from their last 5 games and Atalanta took 6 from 5. Atalanta come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Fiorentina won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Atalanta won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Fiorentina score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Atalanta score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Fiorentina games and 11 of Atalanta games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Fiorentina won 0 and Atalanta won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Fiorentina 1, Atalanta 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Fiorentinarecent form+1%
Fiorentinarest between games-5%
Atalantarest between games-5%

Fiorentina form D L D W WAtalanta form D W W L LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fiorentina vs Atalanta: Fiorentina shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fiorentina host Atalanta in the Serie A on Thu 29 Oct, 19:45 at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta is Fiorentina to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Fiorentina form

Fiorentina have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Atalanta form

Atalanta have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fiorentina won 0, Atalanta won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Fiorentina 1, Atalanta 1.

Our call

We expect Fiorentina to score about 1.4 goals and Atalanta about 1.3. That points to Fiorentina to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.74.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	7
Draws	6	4
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	23	27
Goals conceded	30	32
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.5	1.6
Home record	2W 5D 3L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	5W 1D 4L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Fiorentina to win	38%	2.61	2.20	-15.7%
A Draw	26%	3.83	3.40	-11.2%
Atalanta to win	35%	2.87	2.80	-2.4%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.98	1.67	-15.8%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.19	2.05	-6.4%
Fiorentina -0.5	43%	2.34	2.10	-10.4%
Atalanta +0.5	54%	1.87	1.57	-15.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.96
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.45
Both teams to score	56%	1.79
Fiorentina or Draw	65%	1.54
Atalanta or Draw	62%	1.61
Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.35
Atalanta to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.73
Fiorentina clean sheet	26%	3.78
Atalanta clean sheet	25%	4.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

2-18.5%

1-08.4%

1-28.1%

0-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Real Madrid Loanee Breaks Lionel Messi Record in Italy

On loan Real Madrid winger Franco Mastantuono became the youngest Argentine to score a hat trick in Europe's top leagues during Fiorentina's win.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta is Fiorentina to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Fiorentina to score 1.4 goals and Atalanta 1.3.

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Fiorentina last 20 games and 13 of Atalanta last 20.

How are Fiorentina playing?

How are Atalanta playing?

What happened when Fiorentina and Atalanta last met?

It ended Fiorentina 1, Atalanta 1. In the last 2 meetings Fiorentina won 0 and Atalanta won 1.

What is the best bet for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fiorentina against Atalanta. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.