Predictions › Italy › Fiorentina vs Como

Serie ASun 18 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Fiorentina vs Como prediction

Stadio Artemio Franchi

FiorentinaHome

1.11 : 1.65

expected goals

ComoAway

25%Fiorentina

26%Draw

49%Como

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Como is Como to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction: Como to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.1, Como 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Como to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 3.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Fiorentina 25%, the draw 26% and Como 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Como the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
Fiorentina took 4 points from their last 5 games and Como took 12 from 5. Como come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Fiorentina won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Como won 7 of their last 12 on the road.
4
Goals
Fiorentina score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Como score 2.0 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Fiorentina games and 11 of Como games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Fiorentina won 1 and Como won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Como 1, Fiorentina 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Comorecent form+4%

Fiorentina form D W W L LComo form L W W W WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fiorentina vs Como: Como are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fiorentina host Como in the Serie A on Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Como is Como to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Fiorentina form

Fiorentina have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Como form

Como have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fiorentina won 1, Como won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Como 1, Fiorentina 2.

Our call

We expect Fiorentina to score about 1.1 goals and Como about 1.6. That points to Como to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Como to win and Over 2.5 at 3.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Fiorentina	Como
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	13
Draws	7	4
Losses	5	3
Goals scored	23	40
Goals conceded	26	18
Scored per game	1.1	2.0
Conceded per game	1.3	0.9
Home record	3W 6D 2L	6W 1D 1L
Away record	5W 1D 3L	7W 3D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	35%
Both teams scored	50%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Fiorentina to win	24%	4.09	3.10	-24.2%
A Draw	25%	3.94	3.50	-11.2%
Como to win	46%	2.18	2.00	-8.1%
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.63	-15.9%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.41	2.15	-10.8%
Fiorentina +0.5	49%	2.03	1.69	-16.9%
Como -0.5	44%	2.27	1.95	-13.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.92
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.34
Both teams to score	55%	1.82
Fiorentina or Draw	51%	1.97
Como or Draw	75%	1.33
Fiorentina to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.81
Como to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.23
Fiorentina clean sheet	19%	5.22
Como clean sheet	33%	3.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

0-19.7%

1-29.6%

0-28.6%

0-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Serie A

Real Madrid Loanee Breaks Lionel Messi Record in Italy

On loan Real Madrid winger Franco Mastantuono became the youngest Argentine to score a hat trick in Europe's top leagues during Fiorentina's win.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Fiorentina vs Como?

Our prediction for Fiorentina vs Como is Como to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Fiorentina vs Como?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Fiorentina to score 1.1 goals and Como 1.6.

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Como?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Fiorentina last 20 games and 12 of Como last 20.

How are Fiorentina playing?

How are Como playing?

What happened when Fiorentina and Como last met?

It ended Como 1, Fiorentina 2. In the last 2 meetings Fiorentina won 1 and Como won 1.

What is the best bet for Fiorentina vs Como?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fiorentina against Como. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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