Predictions › Brazil › Flamengo vs Athletico-PR

BrasileiraoWed 18 Nov, 23:30 Brazil time

Flamengo vs Athletico-PR prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FlamengoHome

2.49 : 0.90

expected goals

Athletico-PRAway

72%Flamengo

17%Draw

11%Athletico-PR

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Athletico-PR is Flamengo to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: Flamengo to win
Chance: 72%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Flamengo 2.5, Athletico-PR 0.9
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2.941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Flamengo 72%, the draw 17% and Athletico-PR 11%. The bookmakers agree and make Flamengo the favourite at 1.22.
2
Recent form
Flamengo took 13 points from their last 5 games and Athletico-PR took 4 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Flamengo won 9 of their last 11 games at home. Athletico-PR won 5 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Flamengo score 2.0 goals a game and let in 0.7. Athletico-PR score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Flamengo games and 10 of Athletico-PR games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Flamengo won 0 and Athletico-PR won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Athletico-PR 1, Flamengo 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Flamengorecent form+6%
Athletico-PRrecent form-3%

Flamengo form W W W D WAthletico-PR form L L D L WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Flamengo vs Athletico-PR: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Flamengo host Athletico-PR in the Brasileirao on Wed 18 Nov, 23:30 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Flamengo vs Athletico-PR is Flamengo to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Athletico-PR form

Athletico-PR have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Flamengo won 0, Athletico-PR won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Athletico-PR 1, Flamengo 1.

Our call

We expect Flamengo to score about 2.5 goals and Athletico-PR about 0.9. That points to Flamengo to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and both score at 2.94.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Flamengo	Athletico-PR
Games played	20	20
Wins	14	8
Draws	5	7
Losses	1	5
Goals scored	40	31
Goals conceded	14	28
Scored per game	2.0	1.6
Conceded per game	0.7	1.4
Home record	9W 2D 0L	3W 4D 2L
Away record	5W 3D 1L	5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	45%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Flamengo to win	73%	1.37	1.22	-10.7%
A Draw	16%	6.10	6.00	-1.6%
Athletico-PR to win	11%	9.47	10.00	+5.6%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.40	2.10	-12.4%
Under 3.5 goals	51%	1.95	1.61	-17.5%
Flamengo -1.5	50%	2.02	1.63	-19.5%
Athletico-PR +1.5	44%	2.30	2.05	-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.17
Over 2.5 goals	66%	1.52
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.29
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Flamengo or Draw	89%	1.12
Athletico-PR or Draw	28%	3.53
Flamengo to win and Over 2.5	53%	1.88
Athletico-PR to win and Over 2.5	7%	14.07
Flamengo clean sheet	41%	2.45
Athletico-PR clean sheet	8%	12.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.5%

2-19.4%

3-08.7%

1-18.0%

1-08.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Flamengo vs Athletico-PR?

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Athletico-PR is Flamengo to win, with a 72% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Flamengo vs Athletico-PR?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 3-0. We expect Flamengo to score 2.5 goals and Athletico-PR 0.9.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Athletico-PR?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Flamengo last 20 games and 13 of Athletico-PR last 20.

How are Flamengo playing?

How are Athletico-PR playing?

What happened when Flamengo and Athletico-PR last met?

It ended Athletico-PR 1, Flamengo 1. In the last 1 meeting Flamengo won 0 and Athletico-PR won 0.

What is the best bet for Flamengo vs Athletico-PR?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Flamengo against Athletico-PR. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.