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Predictions › Brazil › Flamengo vs Atlético-MG
BrasileiraoMon 26 Oct, 23:00 Brazil time

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FlamengoHome
1.51 : 0.69
expected goals
Atlético-MGAway
56%Flamengo
27%Draw
16%Atlético-MG
Eagle safe pickFlamengo or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Atlético-MG is Flamengo to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Flamengo to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Flamengo 1.5, Atlético-MG 0.7
Best bet
Flamengo or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Flamengo or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Flamengo 56%, the draw 27% and Atlético-MG 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Flamengo took 9 points from their last 5 games and Atlético-MG took 11 from 5. Atlético-MG come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Flamengo won 9 of their last 11 games at home. Atlético-MG won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Flamengo score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.6. Atlético-MG score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Flamengo games and 10 of Atlético-MG games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Flamengo won 1 and Atlético-MG won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético-MG 0, Flamengo 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Flamengo or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Flamengorecent form+3%
  • Atlético-MGrecent form+3%
  • Flamengorest between games-5%
Flamengo form D W D W DAtlético-MG form D W D W DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Flamengo vs Atlético-MG: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Flamengo host Atlético-MG in the Brasileirao on Mon 26 Oct, 23:00 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Flamengo vs Atlético-MG is Flamengo to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.21.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Flamengo won 1, Atlético-MG won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético-MG 0, Flamengo 4.

Our call

We expect Flamengo to score about 1.5 goals and Atlético-MG about 0.7. That points to Flamengo to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FlamengoAtlético-MG
Games played2020
Wins139
Draws66
Losses15
Goals scored3927
Goals conceded1223
Scored per game1.91.4
Conceded per game0.61.1
Home record9W 2D 0L6W 3D 1L
Away record4W 4D 1L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets50%20%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals65%1.53
Over 2.5 goals38%2.65
Over 3.5 goals18%5.53
Both teams to score40%2.53
Flamengo or Draw84%1.20
Atlético-MG or Draw44%2.28
Flamengo to win and Over 2.528%3.62
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.57%14.82
Flamengo clean sheet50%2.00
Atlético-MG clean sheet22%4.52

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.0%
2-012.6%
1-112.3%
0-011.8%
2-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Flamengo vs Atlético-MG?

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Atlético-MG is Flamengo to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Flamengo vs Atlético-MG?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Flamengo to score 1.5 goals and Atlético-MG 0.7.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Atlético-MG?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Flamengo last 20 games and 11 of Atlético-MG last 20.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

Atlético-MG have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Flamengo and Atlético-MG last met?

It ended Atlético-MG 0, Flamengo 4. In the last 2 meetings Flamengo won 1 and Atlético-MG won 0.

What is the best bet for Flamengo vs Atlético-MG?

Flamengo or Draw at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Flamengo against Atlético-MG. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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