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Predictions › Brazil › Flamengo vs Fluminense
BrasileiraoSun 11 Oct, 20:30 Brazil time

Flamengo vs Fluminense prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FlamengoHome
1.96 : 0.90
expected goals
FluminenseAway
62%Flamengo
22%Draw
16%Fluminense
Eagle safe pickFlamengo or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense is Flamengo to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Flamengo to win
Chance
62%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Flamengo 2.0, Fluminense 0.9
Best bet
Flamengo or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Flamengo or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Flamengo 62%, the draw 22% and Fluminense 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Flamengo took 13 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 9 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Flamengo won 9 of their last 12 games at home. Fluminense won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Flamengo score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.7. Fluminense score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Flamengo games and 10 of Fluminense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Flamengo won 1 and Fluminense won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fluminense 1, Flamengo 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Flamengo or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Flamengorecent form+6%
  • Fluminenserecent form+1%
Flamengo form W D W W WFluminense form W L L W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Flamengo vs Fluminense: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Flamengo host Fluminense in the Brasileirao on Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense is Flamengo to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.23.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Flamengo won 1, Fluminense won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 1, Flamengo 2.

Our call

We expect Flamengo to score about 2.0 goals and Fluminense about 0.9. That points to Flamengo to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FlamengoFluminense
Games played2020
Wins138
Draws59
Losses23
Goals scored3830
Goals conceded1423
Scored per game1.91.5
Conceded per game0.71.1
Home record9W 2D 1L7W 4D 0L
Away record4W 3D 1L1W 5D 3L
Clean sheets45%20%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.27
Over 2.5 goals54%1.84
Over 3.5 goals32%3.11
Both teams to score52%1.94
Flamengo or Draw84%1.19
Fluminense or Draw38%2.60
Flamengo to win and Over 2.540%2.50
Fluminense to win and Over 2.59%10.98
Flamengo clean sheet41%2.46
Fluminense clean sheet14%7.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.0%
1-110.7%
1-010.6%
2-19.9%
3-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Flamengo vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense is Flamengo to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Flamengo or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-0. We expect Flamengo to score 2.0 goals and Fluminense 0.9.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Flamengo last 20 games and 15 of Fluminense last 20.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Fluminense playing?

Fluminense have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Flamengo and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 1, Flamengo 2. In the last 2 meetings Flamengo won 1 and Fluminense won 1.

What is the best bet for Flamengo vs Fluminense?

Flamengo or Draw at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Flamengo against Fluminense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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