EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Brazil › Flamengo vs Grêmio
BrasileiraoWed 4 Nov, 22:30 Brazil time

Flamengo vs Grêmio prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FlamengoHome
1.96 : 0.58
expected goals
GrêmioAway
70%Flamengo
21%Draw
9%Grêmio
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio is Flamengo to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Flamengo to win
Chance
70%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Flamengo 2.0, Grêmio 0.6
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.551 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Flamengo 70%, the draw 21% and Grêmio 9%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Flamengo took 9 points from their last 5 games and Grêmio took 3 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Flamengo won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Grêmio won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Flamengo score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.6. Grêmio score 1.0 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Flamengo games and 9 of Grêmio games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Flamengo won 1 and Grêmio won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Grêmio 0, Flamengo 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Flamengorecent form+3%
  • Grêmiorecent form-1%
Flamengo form D W D W DGrêmio form D D D D LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Flamengo vs Grêmio: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Flamengo host Grêmio in the Brasileirao on Wed 4 Nov, 22:30 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio is Flamengo to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 12 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Grêmio form

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Flamengo won 1, Grêmio won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Grêmio 0, Flamengo 1.

Our call

We expect Flamengo to score about 2.0 goals and Grêmio about 0.6. That points to Flamengo to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.55.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FlamengoGrêmio
Games played2020
Wins124
Draws76
Losses110
Goals scored3620
Goals conceded1230
Scored per game1.81.0
Conceded per game0.61.5
Home record7W 3D 0L4W 3D 4L
Away record5W 4D 1L0W 3D 6L
Clean sheets50%15%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%2.14
Over 3.5 goals25%3.97
Both teams to score38%2.61
Flamengo or Draw91%1.10
Grêmio or Draw30%3.31
Flamengo to win and Over 2.540%2.52
Grêmio to win and Over 2.54%24.36
Flamengo clean sheet56%1.79
Grêmio clean sheet14%7.13

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-015.1%
1-014.9%
3-09.9%
1-19.5%
2-18.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Flamengo vs Grêmio?

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio is Flamengo to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Flamengo vs Grêmio?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 3-0. We expect Flamengo to score 2.0 goals and Grêmio 0.6.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Grêmio?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Flamengo last 20 games and 12 of Grêmio last 20.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 12 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Grêmio playing?

Grêmio have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Flamengo and Grêmio last met?

It ended Grêmio 0, Flamengo 1. In the last 1 meeting Flamengo won 1 and Grêmio won 0.

What is the best bet for Flamengo vs Grêmio?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Flamengo against Grêmio. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.