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Predictions › Copa Libertadores › Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle
Copa LibertadoresFri 18 Sept, 00:30 UTC

Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FlamengoHome
2.07 : 0.76
expected goals
Independiente del ValleAway
67%Flamengo
21%Draw
12%Ind. del Valle
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle is Flamengo to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Flamengo to win
Chance
67%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Flamengo 2.1, Independiente del Valle 0.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 2.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Flamengo 67%, the draw 21% and Independiente del Valle 12%. The bookmakers agree and make Flamengo the favourite at 1.36.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Flamengo took 12 points from their last 5 games and Independiente del Valle took 12 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Flamengo won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Independiente del Valle won 2 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Flamengo score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.7. Independiente del Valle score 1.7 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Flamengo games and 4 of Independiente del Valle games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Flamengo won 1 and Independiente del Valle won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente del Valle 0, Flamengo 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Flamengorecent form+4%
  • Flamengorest between games-2%
  • Ind. del Vallerest between games-2%
Flamengo form W W W W LInd. del Valle form L W L D WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Flamengo host Independiente del Valle in the Copa Libertadores on Fri 18 Sept, 00:30 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle is Flamengo to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Independiente del Valle form

Independiente del Valle have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 9 games, with 15 goals scored and 9 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Flamengo won 1, Independiente del Valle won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente del Valle 0, Flamengo 2.

Our call

We expect Flamengo to score about 2.1 goals and Independiente del Valle about 0.8. That points to Flamengo to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FlamengoInd. del Valle
Games played209
Wins136
Draws51
Losses22
Goals scored3915
Goals conceded139
Scored per game1.91.7
Conceded per game0.71.0
Home record7W 2D 1L4W 0D 1L
Away record6W 3D 1L2W 1D 1L
Clean sheets55%33%
Both teams scored40%44%
Over 2.5 goals50%44%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Flamengo to win68%1.471.36-7.6%
A Draw19%5.144.80-6.6%
Independiente del Valle to win11%9.047.50-17.1%
Over 2.5 goals55%1.821.65-9.7%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.352.05-12.6%
Flamengo -1.544%2.281.91-16.1%
Independiente del Valle +1.554%1.871.71-8.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.86
Over 3.5 goals31%3.18
Both teams to score47%2.13
Flamengo or Draw88%1.14
Independiente del Valle or Draw33%3.07
Flamengo to win and Over 2.543%2.32
Independiente del Valle to win and Over 2.56%15.68
Flamengo clean sheet47%2.13
Independiente del Valle clean sheet13%7.94

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-012.7%
1-011.7%
1-19.8%
2-19.6%
3-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle?

Our prediction for Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle is Flamengo to win, with a 67% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Flamengo to score 2.1 goals and Independiente del Valle 0.8.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Flamengo last 20 games and 4 of Independiente del Valle last 9.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Independiente del Valle playing?

Independiente del Valle have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 9 games, with 15 goals scored and 9 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Flamengo and Independiente del Valle last met?

It ended Independiente del Valle 0, Flamengo 2. In the last 1 meeting Flamengo won 1 and Independiente del Valle won 0.

What is the best bet for Flamengo vs Independiente del Valle?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Flamengo against Ind. del Valle. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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