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BrasileiraoFri 9 Oct, 00:30 Brazil time

Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FluminenseHome

1.91 : 0.82

expected goals

CoritibaAway

63%Fluminense

23%Draw

15%Coritiba

Eagle safe pickFluminense or Draw

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fluminense vs Coritiba is Fluminense to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Fluminense or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction: Fluminense to win
Chance: 63%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Fluminense 1.9, Coritiba 0.8
Best bet: Fluminense or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Fluminense or Draw

83% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fluminense to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 2.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Fluminense 63%, the draw 23% and Coritiba 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Fluminense the favourite at 1.47.
2
Recent form
Fluminense took 9 points from their last 5 games and Coritiba took 7 from 5. Fluminense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Fluminense won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Coritiba won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Fluminense score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Coritiba score 1.4 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Fluminense games and 13 of Coritiba games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Fluminense won 0 and Coritiba won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Coritiba 1, Fluminense 1.
6
The safest bet
Fluminense or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Fluminenserecent form+1%

Fluminense form W L L W WCoritiba form L D L W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fluminense vs Coritiba: Fluminense are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fluminense host Coritiba in the Brasileirao on Fri 9 Oct, 00:30 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Fluminense vs Coritiba is Fluminense to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Fluminense or Draw at 1.21.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Fluminense won 0, Coritiba won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Coritiba 1, Fluminense 1.

Our call

We expect Fluminense to score about 1.9 goals and Coritiba about 0.8. That points to Fluminense to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Fluminense or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Fluminense to win and Over 2.5 at 2.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Fluminense	Coritiba
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	9	7
Losses	3	7
Goals scored	30	28
Goals conceded	23	35
Scored per game	1.5	1.4
Conceded per game	1.1	1.8
Home record	7W 4D 0L	4W 4D 3L
Away record	1W 5D 3L	2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	75%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Fluminense to win	61%	1.64	1.47	-10.6%
A Draw	22%	4.51	4.10	-9.1%
Coritiba to win	15%	6.72	6.50	-3.3%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.10	1.80	-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.17	1.83	-15.4%
Fluminense -1.5	36%	2.76	2.30	-16.6%
Coritiba +1.5	59%	1.71	1.50	-12.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.95
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.42
Both teams to score	48%	2.08
Fluminense or Draw	85%	1.17
Coritiba or Draw	37%	2.67
Fluminense to win and Over 2.5	39%	2.58
Coritiba to win and Over 2.5	8%	12.75
Fluminense clean sheet	44%	2.26
Coritiba clean sheet	15%	6.77

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.9%

1-011.9%

1-110.8%

2-19.7%

3-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fluminense vs Coritiba?

Our prediction for Fluminense vs Coritiba is Fluminense to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Fluminense or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Fluminense vs Coritiba?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Fluminense to score 1.9 goals and Coritiba 0.8.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Fluminense last 20 games and 13 of Coritiba last 20.

How are Fluminense playing?

How are Coritiba playing?

What happened when Fluminense and Coritiba last met?

It ended Coritiba 1, Fluminense 1. In the last 1 meeting Fluminense won 0 and Coritiba won 0.

What is the best bet for Fluminense vs Coritiba?

Fluminense or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fluminense against Coritiba. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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