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Predictions › Brazil › Fluminense vs Santos
BrasileiraoSun 18 Oct, 19:00 Brazil time

Fluminense vs Santos prediction

Estadio do Maracana

FluminenseHome
1.63 : 1.24
expected goals
SantosAway
46%Fluminense
26%Draw
28%Santos
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fluminense vs Santos is Fluminense to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Fluminense to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Fluminense 1.6, Santos 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fluminense to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fluminense 46%, the draw 26% and Santos 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fluminense took 9 points from their last 5 games and Santos took 15 from 5. Santos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fluminense won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Santos won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Fluminense score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Santos score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Fluminense games and 13 of Santos games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Fluminense won 1 and Santos won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Santos 2, Fluminense 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fluminenserecent form+1%
  • Santosrecent form+4%
Fluminense form W L L W WSantos form W W L W WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fluminense vs Santos: Fluminense are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fluminense host Santos in the Brasileirao on Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio do Maracana. Our prediction for Fluminense vs Santos is Fluminense to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Santos form

Santos have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Fluminense won 1, Santos won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Santos 2, Fluminense 3.

Our call

We expect Fluminense to score about 1.6 goals and Santos about 1.2. That points to Fluminense to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Fluminense to win and Over 2.5 at 3.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FluminenseSantos
Games played2020
Wins810
Draws94
Losses36
Goals scored3033
Goals conceded2328
Scored per game1.51.6
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record7W 4D 0L5W 2D 3L
Away record1W 5D 3L5W 2D 3L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.09
Both teams to score58%1.73
Fluminense or Draw72%1.40
Santos or Draw54%1.84
Fluminense to win and Over 2.530%3.37
Santos to win and Over 2.518%5.64
Fluminense clean sheet29%3.46
Santos clean sheet20%5.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
2-19.3%
1-08.5%
2-07.5%
1-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fluminense vs Santos?

Our prediction for Fluminense vs Santos is Fluminense to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Fluminense vs Santos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Fluminense to score 1.6 goals and Santos 1.2.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Fluminense last 20 games and 13 of Santos last 20.

How are Fluminense playing?

Fluminense have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Fluminense and Santos last met?

It ended Santos 2, Fluminense 3. In the last 1 meeting Fluminense won 1 and Santos won 0.

What is the best bet for Fluminense vs Santos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fluminense against Santos. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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