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Predictions › Colombia › Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior
Colombian Primera ASun 20 Sept, 19:00 Colombia time

Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior prediction

Metropolitano de Techo

Fortaleza CEIFHome
1.08 : 1.04
expected goals
Atlético JuniorAway
35%Fortaleza
31%Draw
33%Atl. Junior
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior is Fortaleza CEIF to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Fortaleza CEIF to win
Chance
35%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Fortaleza CEIF 1.1, Atlético Junior 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fortaleza CEIF 35%, the draw 31% and Atlético Junior 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fortaleza CEIF took 3 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Junior took 3 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fortaleza CEIF won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Atlético Junior won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Fortaleza CEIF score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Atlético Junior score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Fortaleza CEIF games and 8 of Atlético Junior games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and Atlético Junior won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético Junior 2, Fortaleza CEIF 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fortalezarecent form-3%
  • Atl. Juniorrecent form-3%
  • Fortalezarest between games-5%
  • Atl. Juniorrest between games-5%
Fortaleza form D D L D LAtl. Junior form L D D L DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior: Fortaleza CEIF shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fortaleza CEIF host Atlético Junior in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 20 Sept, 19:00 at Metropolitano de Techo. Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior is Fortaleza CEIF to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Fortaleza CEIF form

Fortaleza CEIF have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Atlético Junior form

Atlético Junior have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fortaleza CEIF won 0, Atlético Junior won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Junior 2, Fortaleza CEIF 1.

Our call

We expect Fortaleza CEIF to score about 1.1 goals and Atlético Junior about 1.0. That points to Fortaleza CEIF to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FortalezaAtl. Junior
Games played2020
Wins45
Draws87
Losses88
Goals scored2326
Goals conceded2730
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game1.41.5
Home record4W 2D 4L4W 5D 2L
Away record0W 6D 4L1W 2D 6L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.58
Over 2.5 goals36%2.81
Over 3.5 goals17%6.04
Both teams to score44%2.30
Fortaleza CEIF or Draw67%1.50
Atlético Junior or Draw65%1.55
Fortaleza CEIF to win and Over 2.516%6.17
Atlético Junior to win and Over 2.515%6.62
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet35%2.83
Atlético Junior clean sheet34%2.95

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%
0-012.8%
1-012.2%
0-111.6%
2-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior?

Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior is Fortaleza CEIF to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Fortaleza CEIF to score 1.1 goals and Atlético Junior 1.0.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Fortaleza CEIF last 20 games and 11 of Atlético Junior last 20.

How are Fortaleza CEIF playing?

Fortaleza CEIF have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Atlético Junior playing?

Atlético Junior have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Fortaleza CEIF and Atlético Junior last met?

It ended Atlético Junior 2, Fortaleza CEIF 1. In the last 2 meetings Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and Atlético Junior won 1.

What is the best bet for Fortaleza CEIF vs Atlético Junior?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fortaleza against Atl. Junior. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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