EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Colombia › Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera ASat 7 Nov, 01:00 Colombia time

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín prediction

Metropolitano de Techo

Fortaleza CEIFHome
1.27 : 1.67
expected goals
Independiente MedellínAway
28%Fortaleza
25%Draw
46%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Fortaleza CEIF 1.3, Independiente Medellín 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fortaleza CEIF 28%, the draw 25% and Independiente Medellín 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fortaleza CEIF took 4 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fortaleza CEIF won 3 of their last 12 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Fortaleza CEIF score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Fortaleza CEIF games and 13 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and Independiente Medellín won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 1, Fortaleza CEIF 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fortalezarecent form-3%
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-3%
  • Fortalezarest between games-2%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-2%
Fortaleza form D L L D DInd. Medellín form D L L W LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín: Independiente Medellín are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fortaleza CEIF host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 7 Nov, 01:00 at Metropolitano de Techo. Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Fortaleza CEIF form

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fortaleza CEIF won 0, Independiente Medellín won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 1, Fortaleza CEIF 0.

Our call

We expect Fortaleza CEIF to score about 1.3 goals and Independiente Medellín about 1.7. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.5 at 3.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FortalezaInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins39
Draws102
Losses79
Goals scored2227
Goals conceded2729
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record3W 5D 4L5W 1D 5L
Away record0W 5D 3L4W 1D 4L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.94
Both teams to score59%1.69
Fortaleza CEIF or Draw54%1.86
Independiente Medellín or Draw72%1.40
Fortaleza CEIF to win and Over 2.518%5.50
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.531%3.27
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet19%5.32
Independiente Medellín clean sheet28%3.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
1-29.4%
0-18.1%
0-27.4%
2-17.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Fortaleza CEIF to score 1.3 goals and Independiente Medellín 1.7.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Fortaleza CEIF last 20 games and 11 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are Fortaleza CEIF playing?

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 10 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Fortaleza CEIF and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 1, Fortaleza CEIF 0. In the last 2 meetings Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and Independiente Medellín won 2.

What is the best bet for Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fortaleza against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.