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Predictions › Colombia › Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios
Colombian Primera AFri 9 Oct, 01:10 Colombia time

Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios prediction

Metropolitano de Techo

Fortaleza CEIFHome
1.10 : 1.60
expected goals
MillonariosAway
25%Fortaleza
26%Draw
48%Millonarios
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios is Millonarios to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Millonarios to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Fortaleza CEIF 1.1, Millonarios 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Millonarios to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fortaleza CEIF 25%, the draw 26% and Millonarios 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fortaleza CEIF took 3 points from their last 5 games and Millonarios took 9 from 5. Millonarios come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fortaleza CEIF won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Millonarios won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Fortaleza CEIF score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Millonarios score 1.6 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Fortaleza CEIF games and 8 of Millonarios games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and Millonarios won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Millonarios 2, Fortaleza CEIF 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fortalezarecent form-3%
  • Millonariosrecent form+3%
  • Fortalezarest between games-5%
Fortaleza form D L D D LMillonarios form D W W D DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios: Millonarios are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fortaleza CEIF host Millonarios in the Colombian Primera A on Fri 9 Oct, 01:10 at Metropolitano de Techo. Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios is Millonarios to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Fortaleza CEIF form

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Millonarios form

Millonarios have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fortaleza CEIF won 0, Millonarios won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Millonarios 2, Fortaleza CEIF 2.

Our call

We expect Fortaleza CEIF to score about 1.1 goals and Millonarios about 1.6. That points to Millonarios to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Millonarios to win and Over 2.5 at 3.52.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FortalezaMillonarios
Games played2020
Wins38
Draws88
Losses94
Goals scored2331
Goals conceded3119
Scored per game1.11.6
Conceded per game1.60.9
Home record3W 3D 5L4W 4D 1L
Away record0W 5D 4L4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.32
Over 2.5 goals51%1.98
Over 3.5 goals29%3.51
Both teams to score54%1.85
Fortaleza CEIF or Draw52%1.93
Millonarios or Draw75%1.34
Fortaleza CEIF to win and Over 2.515%6.80
Millonarios to win and Over 2.530%3.39
Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet20%4.94
Millonarios clean sheet33%3.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%
0-110.1%
1-29.5%
0-28.6%
0-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios?

Our prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios is Millonarios to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Fortaleza CEIF to score 1.1 goals and Millonarios 1.6.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Fortaleza CEIF last 20 games and 11 of Millonarios last 20.

How are Fortaleza CEIF playing?

Fortaleza CEIF have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Millonarios playing?

Millonarios have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Fortaleza CEIF and Millonarios last met?

It ended Millonarios 2, Fortaleza CEIF 2. In the last 2 meetings Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and Millonarios won 1.

What is the best bet for Fortaleza CEIF vs Millonarios?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fortaleza against Millonarios. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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