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Predictions › Netherlands › Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
EredivisieSun 25 Oct, 11:15 Netherlands time

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior prediction

Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Fortuna SittardHome
1.38 : 2.13
expected goals
ExcelsiorAway
24%Fortuna
22%Draw
54%Excelsior
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction
Excelsior to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-2
Expected goals
Fortuna Sittard 1.4, Excelsior 2.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score
66%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.172 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Excelsior to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.371 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fortuna Sittard 24%, the draw 22% and Excelsior 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fortuna Sittard took 10 points from their last 5 games and Excelsior took 5 from 5. Fortuna Sittard come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fortuna Sittard won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Excelsior won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Fortuna Sittard score 1.5 goals a game and let in 2.0. Excelsior score 1.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Fortuna Sittard games and 16 of Excelsior games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Fortuna Sittard won 1 and Excelsior won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Fortuna Sittard 2, Excelsior 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Fortunarecent form+3%
Fortuna form D W L W WExcelsior form D D L D WHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: Excelsior are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fortuna Sittard host Excelsior in the Eredivisie on Sun 25 Oct, 11:15 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion. Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Fortuna Sittard form

Fortuna Sittard have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Excelsior form

Excelsior have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fortuna Sittard won 1, Excelsior won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Fortuna Sittard 2, Excelsior 1.

Our call

We expect Fortuna Sittard to score about 1.4 goals and Excelsior about 2.1. That points to Excelsior to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Excelsior to win and Over 2.5 at 2.37.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

FortunaExcelsior
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws35
Losses99
Goals scored3035
Goals conceded4033
Scored per game1.51.8
Conceded per game2.01.6
Home record3W 2D 5L2W 1D 7L
Away record5W 1D 4L4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets5%15%
Both teams scored80%75%
Over 2.5 goals70%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.15
Over 2.5 goals68%1.47
Over 3.5 goals47%2.15
Both teams to score66%1.50
Fortuna Sittard or Draw46%2.19
Excelsior or Draw76%1.31
Fortuna Sittard to win and Over 2.517%5.72
Excelsior to win and Over 2.542%2.40
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet12%8.46
Excelsior clean sheet25%3.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.4%
1-19.3%
0-26.8%
1-36.7%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Our prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior is Excelsior to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Fortuna Sittard to score 1.4 goals and Excelsior 2.1.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Both teams to score has a 66% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Fortuna Sittard last 20 games and 15 of Excelsior last 20.

How are Fortuna Sittard playing?

Fortuna Sittard have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Excelsior playing?

Excelsior have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior last met?

It ended Fortuna Sittard 2, Excelsior 1. In the last 2 meetings Fortuna Sittard won 1 and Excelsior won 1.

What is the best bet for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fortuna against Excelsior. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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