Predictions › Norway › Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK

EliteserienSun 13 Sept, 17:15 Norway time

Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK prediction

Fredrikstad Stadion

FredrikstadHome

1.47 : 1.27

expected goals

Sarpsborg FKAway

41%Fredrikstad

27%Draw

32%Sarpsborg FK

Eagle safe pickSarpsborg FK +0.5

1.54

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK is Fredrikstad to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sarpsborg FK +0.5 at 1.54.

Prediction: Fredrikstad to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.5, Sarpsborg FK 1.3
Best bet: Sarpsborg FK +0.5 at 1.54
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Sarpsborg FK +0.5

61% chancePrice 1.541 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.841 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Fredrikstad 41%, the draw 27% and Sarpsborg FK 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Fredrikstad the favourite at 2.45.
2
Recent form
Fredrikstad took 12 points from their last 5 games and Sarpsborg FK took 3 from 5. Fredrikstad come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Fredrikstad won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Sarpsborg FK won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Fredrikstad score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Sarpsborg FK score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Fredrikstad games and 10 of Sarpsborg FK games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Fredrikstad won 1 and Sarpsborg FK won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sarpsborg FK 2, Fredrikstad 1.
6
The safest bet
Sarpsborg FK +0.5 has a 61% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Fredrikstadrecent form+4%
Sarpsborg FKrecent form-3%

Fredrikstad form L W W W WSarpsborg FK form D D L L DHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK: Fredrikstad shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fredrikstad host Sarpsborg FK in the Eliteserien on Sun 13 Sept, 17:15 at Fredrikstad Stadion. Our prediction for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK is Fredrikstad to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sarpsborg FK +0.5 at 1.54.

Fredrikstad form

Fredrikstad have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Sarpsborg FK form

Sarpsborg FK have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Fredrikstad won 1, Sarpsborg FK won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sarpsborg FK 2, Fredrikstad 1.

Our call

We expect Fredrikstad to score about 1.5 goals and Sarpsborg FK about 1.3. That points to Fredrikstad to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Sarpsborg FK +0.5 at 1.54. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.84.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Fredrikstad	Sarpsborg FK
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	2	6
Losses	10	7
Goals scored	23	23
Goals conceded	35	25
Scored per game	1.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.8	1.3
Home record	5W 1D 3L	5W 3D 2L
Away record	3W 1D 7L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	15%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Fredrikstad to win	38%	2.64	2.45	-7.2%
A Draw	25%	3.93	3.55	-9.7%
Sarpsborg FK to win	30%	3.30	2.75	-16.6%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.85	1.69	-8.6%
Under 2.5 goals	43%	2.30	2.10	-8.8%
Fredrikstad -0.5	37%	2.72	2.35	-13.7%
Sarpsborg FK +0.5	61%	1.64	1.54	-6.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93
Over 3.5 goals	30%	3.38
Both teams to score	56%	1.78
Fredrikstad or Draw	68%	1.47
Sarpsborg FK or Draw	59%	1.70
Fredrikstad to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.93
Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.18
Fredrikstad clean sheet	28%	3.57
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet	23%	4.36

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

2-18.9%

1-08.7%

1-27.7%

0-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK?

Our prediction for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK is Fredrikstad to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Sarpsborg FK +0.5 at 1.54.

What is the score prediction for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Fredrikstad to score 1.5 goals and Sarpsborg FK 1.3.

Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Fredrikstad last 20 games and 11 of Sarpsborg FK last 20.

How are Fredrikstad playing?

How are Sarpsborg FK playing?

What happened when Fredrikstad and Sarpsborg FK last met?

It ended Sarpsborg FK 2, Fredrikstad 1. In the last 2 meetings Fredrikstad won 1 and Sarpsborg FK won 1.

What is the best bet for Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg FK?

Sarpsborg FK +0.5 at 1.54, with a 61% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fredrikstad against Sarpsborg FK. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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