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Predictions › United States › Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies
College FootballSat 7 Nov, 21:30 United States time

Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies prediction

Maverik Stadium

Fresno State BulldogsAway
21.1 : 22.0
projected points
Utah State AggiesHome
52%Fresno St
49%Utah State
Eagle safe pickUtah State +9.5
-304

Quick answer

Our prediction for Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies is Fresno State Bulldogs to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.1 and Utah State Aggies 22.0. Our best bet is Utah State +9.5 at -304.

Prediction
Fresno State Bulldogs to win
Chance
52%
Projected score
Fresno State Bulldogs 21, Utah State Aggies 22
Projected total
43.2 points
Best bet
Utah State +9.5 at -304

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Utah State +9.5
75% chanceFair price -3042 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Utah State Aggies 49% and Fresno State Bulldogs 52%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Utah State Aggies won 2 of their last 5 and Fresno State Bulldogs won 3 of their last 5. Fresno State Bulldogs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Utah State Aggies won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Fresno State Bulldogs won 5 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Utah State Aggies score 25.3 points a game and let in 26.3. Fresno State Bulldogs score 26.1 and let in 18.7. Their recent games average 51.7 and 44.8 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Utah State Aggies won 1 and Fresno State Bulldogs won 0. The last one ended Fresno State Bulldogs 17, Utah State Aggies 28.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Utah State +9.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies: Fresno State Bulldogs shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Utah State Aggies host Fresno State Bulldogs in the College Football on Sat 7 Nov, 21:30 at Maverik Stadium. Our prediction for Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies is Fresno State Bulldogs to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.1 and Utah State Aggies 22.0. Our best bet is Utah State +9.5 at -304.

Utah State Aggies form

Utah State Aggies have 7 wins and 11 losses in their last 18 games, with 456 points scored and 474 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Fresno State Bulldogs form

Fresno State Bulldogs have 11 wins and 6 losses in their last 17 games, with 443 points scored and 318 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Utah State Aggies won 1, Fresno State Bulldogs won 0. Last time out it finished Fresno State Bulldogs 17, Utah State Aggies 28.

Our call

We expect Fresno State Bulldogs to score about 21.1 points and Utah State Aggies about 22.0. That points to Fresno State Bulldogs to win. Our safest bet is Utah State +9.5 at -304.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 18 games in all competitions.

Utah StateFresno St
Games played1817
Wins711
Losses116
Points scored456443
Points conceded474318
Scored per game25.326.1
Conceded per game26.318.7
Home record6W 3L6W 3L
Away record1W 8L5W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Utah State spreadCoversFair
Utah State -7.534%+195
Utah State -3.543%+130
Utah State -0.551%-104
Utah State +2.558%-140
Utah State +6.568%-210
Total pointsOverUnder
36.566%34%
40.557%43%
43.549%51%
46.542%58%
50.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Utah State +3.5 wins if Utah State win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies?

Our prediction for Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies is Fresno State Bulldogs to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.1 and Utah State Aggies 22.0. Our best bet is Utah State +9.5 at -304.

What is the projected score for Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies?

We project Fresno State Bulldogs 21.1 and Utah State Aggies 22.0, about 43.2 points in total.

How are Utah State Aggies playing?

Utah State Aggies have 7 wins and 11 losses in their last 18 games, with 456 points scored and 474 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Fresno State Bulldogs playing?

Fresno State Bulldogs have 11 wins and 6 losses in their last 17 games, with 443 points scored and 318 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Utah State Aggies and Fresno State Bulldogs last met?

It ended Fresno State Bulldogs 17, Utah State Aggies 28. In the last 1 meeting Utah State Aggies won 1 and Fresno State Bulldogs won 0.

What is the best bet for Fresno State Bulldogs vs Utah State Aggies?

Utah State +9.5 at -304, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Utah State against Fresno St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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